Fertility trends in Nepal, 1977-1995

This article presents estimates of fertility trends in Nepal over the period 1977-95, derived from data from two national surveys - the 1991 Nepal Fertility, Family Planning and Health Survey (NFFPHS) and the 1996 Nepal Family Health Survey (NFHS). Both of these surveys were conducted as part of the worldwide Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) programme. Each of the two surveys yield an estimated fertility trend during the 15-year period (or in the case of some measures, the 10-year period) preceding the survey. The two trends overlap during some of those years. If the data are of high quality, the two trends should coincide during this period of overlap. In fact they do not coincide. Analysis of the pattern of discrepancies provides insight into the nature of reporting errors in each of the two surveys and a more accurate assessment of the true trend of fertility then can be obtained from either survey alone.