Foresight: Translating future uncertainty into present-day choices

In the last week of September 2024, Kathmandu and other parts of Nepal experienced heavy flooding, claiming more than 200 lives with many still missing. Streets and settlements that once buzzed with life were swallowed by water, sweeping away homes, vehicles, and any sense of safety. "No one saw this coming in Kathmandu," many of us said, but perhaps we should have. While the intensity of the flood was unexpected, the devastation felt tragically inevitable due to unplanned settlements in or near floodplains. These floods serve as a grim reminder of the growing vulnerability posed by both climate change and non-climatic factors that increase the risks and frequency of such unprecedented disasters.

The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region is particularly vulnerable, grappling with the mounting challenges of climate change and increasing natural hazards and environmental degradation, threatening the lives and livelihoods of more than one billion people. In addition to these environmental stresses, the region is undergoing rapid socioeconomic shifts marked by increased migration, urbanisation, conflicts, persistent inequalities, and technological development such as artificial intelligence (AI). Along with these converging trends and critical shifts, the world is already experiencing a triple planetary crisis of climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss, with the HKH at the frontline of this crisis. This amplifies uncertainties across multiple systems, underscoring the urgent need for foresight.

The pressing need for foresight

Many of us may wish we possess ‘the ability to predict what will happen or be needed in the future’. Beyond this everyday use of the word, ‘foresight’ is a term used in social science, international development and policymaking which refers to the disciplined analysis of alternative futures, with the aim of making better-informed decisions, having considered future eventualities, scenarios and outcomes. In times marked by uncertainty and looming threats, foresight emerges as an essential tool to anticipate potential risks such as the unforeseen flood in Kathmandu, and delve deeper into signs of approaching change. It gives insight into potential future scenarios that can drastically affect lives and livelihoods. Foresight helps “strengthen resilience against the unexpected” by translating future uncertainty into present actionable decisions. It also provides a framework for governments, public organisations, and the private sector to identify pathways to mitigate future risks. UNDP has adopted foresight approaches for the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and it is now increasingly common for development institutions to develop strategies in the face of an uncertain future.

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