2025 Drought in Nepal's Madhesh Province: A rapid situational analysis

Madhesh Province, Nepal’s “Grain Basket,” is facing a severe and prolonged drought in mid-2025 due to deficient winter rains and weak monsoon performance. Rainfall deficits of 30–50% have critically reduced groundwater recharge, dried up more than 30% of boreholes, and caused widespread water shortages, especially in Mahottari, Dhanusha, and Siraha districts. Satellite data and ground reports show significant crop stress, with delayed rice transplantation (only 52% completed vs. 92% last year) and an estimated shortfall of 400,000–450,000 metric tons of rice, potentially cutting national rice supply by 10%.

The crisis is already leading to income losses for farmers, rising food prices, and risks of large-scale food insecurity. The government has declared Madhesh a disaster zone and initiated emergency measures such as deep and shallow tubewell installations and small irrigation schemes. ICIMOD is supporting with Earth observation–based drought monitoring and technical advice.

Recommendations include:

• Short-term: seed replacements, alternative irrigation (mobile pumps, drip, sprinklers), crop diversification, food and water aid, and health support.

• Long-term: direct seeding methods, sustainable groundwater recharge (nature-based solutions, canal rehabilitation, Sunkoshi Marin Diversion Project), crop diversification, and stricter Chure Hills conservation.

The report calls for urgent, coordinated action among government, development partners, farmers, and scientific bodies to mitigate the crisis and strengthen climate resilience.