Simulations and Estimates of Low Latitude Highland Temperature by 5 CMIP5 Models

The research applies monthly average data of 5 models on CMIP5 from 1961 to 2005 and temperature of the low latitude highland in high-resolution grid, followed by BP neural network, EOF analysis and Multiple Linear Regression to the area of low latitude highland between January 2006 and December 2099.The result shows that the temperature estimate of the future 94 years from the ensemble model simulation presents an apparent rising trend, in all emission scenario of RPC2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.In 2099, compared with the average temperature in 2005, temperature is likely to increase by 0.9℃ on RCP2.6 emissions scenario, to increase by 1.8℃ on RCP4.5, and to increase by 3.3℃ on RCP8.5.