HKH Monsoon Outlook 2026

The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) Monsoon Outlook 2026 provides an integrated seasonal assessment of likely summer monsoon conditions (June–September 2026) based on global and regional climate forecasting systems, including HKH S2S predictions supported by IAP–CAS, APCC, C3S, IRI, SASCOF-34, and national meteorological agencies. Current climate signals suggest a transition toward El Niño conditions during the early monsoon period, with a possible positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) later in the season and slightly below-normal Northern Hemisphere snow cover, collectively indicating a higher probability of below-normal precipitation across much of South Asia and the HKH, alongside above-normal temperatures (0.5°C–2°C). While regional variability may bring near- to above-normal rainfall in some areas, the overall outlook points to elevated risks of droughts, heatwaves, water stress, and wildfires, alongside persistent threats from localized extreme rainfall events that may trigger floods, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). The outlook underscores the need for strengthened early warning systems, anticipatory action, and coordinated preparedness by governments, hydrometeorological services, disaster risk management authorities, and development partners ahead of the 2026 monsoon season.