2021
  • Non-ICIMOD publication

Share

1,118 Views
Generated with Avocode. icon 1 Mask color swatch
701 Downloads

IPCC AR6 WGI Chapter 4- Future global climate- Scenario-based projections and near-term information

  • Lee, J. Y., J. Marotzke, G. Bala, L. Cao, S. Corti, J. P. Dunne, F. Engelbrecht, E. Fischer, J. C. Fyfe, C. Jones, A. Maycock, J. Mutemi, O. Ndiaye, S. Panickal, T. Zhou
  • Summary

This chapter assesses simulations of future global climate change, spanning time horizons from the near term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and long term (2081–2100) out to the year 2300. Changes are assessed relative to both the recent past (1995–2014) and the 1850–1900 approximation to the pre-industrial period.

The projections assessed here are mainly based on a new range of scenarios, the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Among the SSPs, the focus is on the five scenarios SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. In the SSP labels, the first number refers to the assumed shared socio-economic pathway, and the second refers to the approximate global effective radiative forcing (ERF) in 2100. Where appropriate, this chapter also assesses new results from CMIP5, which used scenarios based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Additional lines of evidence enter the assessment, especially for change in globally averaged surface air temperature (GSAT) and global mean sea level (GMSL), while assessment for changes in other quantities is mainly based on CMIP6 results. Unless noted otherwise, the assessments assume that there will be no major volcanic eruption in the 21st century. {1.6, 4.2.2, 4.3.2, 4.3.4, 4.6.2, Box 4.1, Cross-Chapter Box 4.1, Cross-Chapter Box 7.1, 9.6}

Main Record

  • Pages:
    200
  • Language:
    English
  • Published Year:
    2021
  • Publisher Name:
    In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press.

Keywords