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HI-AWARE’s overall goal is to enhance the adaptive capacities and climate resilience of the poor and vulnerable women, men, and children in the mountains and plains of the glacier and snowpack-dependent river basins of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH), focusing on the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river basins, through the development of robust evidence to inform people-centred and gender sensitive climate change adaptation policies and practices for improving livelihoods
. This report documents the journey of HI-AWARE from February 2014 to October 2018. This end of project report provides a comprehensive overview of the project, its major outcomes and impact. It is aimed at researchers, policy makers, practitioners and students interested in the issue of climate change adaption in HKH region as well as project management, research with impact, and capacity building in large scale action research settings. The report is divided into three parts: generating knowledge, research uptake and strengthening expertise
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Countries in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) have made advances in socioeconomic development in recent years, but the challenge remains to ensure food and nutrition security, end hunger and poverty, and provide access to safe water and clean energy to a burgeoning population
. Leaders in the region have committed to inclusive growth and climate resilient development as part of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Agenda 2030. Achieving these goals requires a multifaceted approach including integrated solutions; efficient and sustainable use of land, water, energy and ecosystems; strengthening upstream-downstream linkages; and increased regional and subregional coordination and connectivity.In response to these concerns, the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) with the Government of India’s Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (MoAFW) and the Institute of Economic Growth (IEG) conducted a “Knowledge Forum on Climate Resilient Development in the Himalayan and Downstream Regions” on 16–17 June 2016 in New Delhi, India. As a multisector platform, the event brought practitioners, senior government officials, policy makers, experts, researchers and development workers together to deliberate on issues common to the HKH. Participants from Himalayan and downstream countries, including Bangladesh, China, India and Nepal discussed ideas and solutions to ensure food, water and energy security and how to promote climate resilient development. Through six themes, the conference delved into challenges, opportunities and integrated solutions linking science and policy for inclusive growth and climate resilient development
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This study aims to deepen our understanding about local climate change trends, adaptation approaches and strategies of the government, NGOs, and other actors, and emerging adaptation practices in key impacted sectors in the Lower Teesta basin in Bangladesh
. This region, regarded as one of the important food baskets of the country, has been experiencing varied changes in climate variability (including temperature rises, heat stress, low and erratic rainfall, and prolonged droughts), falling groundwater levels, and climatic extremes such as frequent and devastating floods, riverbank erosion, and thunderstorms. These climate change and other stressors are hurting sectors such as agriculture, water, sanitation and health, fisheries, food security, regional infrastructure, housing, and the livelihoods of common people in general
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The Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins provide about 900 million people with water resources used for agricultural, domestic, and industrial purposes
. These river basins are marked as “climate change hotspots”, where climate change is expected to affect monsoon dynamics and the amount of meltwater from snow and ice, and thus the amount of water available. Simultaneously, rapid and continuous population growth as well as strong economic development will likely result in a rapid increase in water demand. Since quantification of these future trends is missing, it is rather uncertain how the future South Asian water gap will develop. To this end, we assess the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development on the future “blue” water gap in the IGB until the end of the 21st century. We apply a coupled modelling approach consisting of the distributed cryospheric–hydrological model SPHY, which simulates current and future upstream water supply, and the hydrology and crop production model LPJmL, which simulates current and future downstream water supply and demand.We force the coupled models with an ensemble of eight representative downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and a set of land use and socio-economic scenarios that are consistent with the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) marker scenarios 1 and 3. The simulation outputs are used to analyse changes in the water availability, supply, demand, and gap. The outcomes show an increase in surface water availability towards the end of the 21st century, which can mainly be attributed to increases in monsoon precipitation. However, despite the increase in surface water availability, the strong socio-economic development and associated increase in water demand will likely lead to an increase in the water gap during the 21st century. This indicates that socio-economic development is the key driver in the evolution of the future South Asian water gap. The transgression of future environmental flows will likely be limited, with sustained environmental flow requirements during the monsoon season and unmet environmental flow requirements during the low-flow season in the Indus and Ganges river basins
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Dhungentar settlement suffered considerable damage during the 2015 earthquake
. Given the Dhungentar community’s marginalised and disadvantaged status, the challenges to and need for assistance in reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts were apparent. However, possibilities for collaboration and local entrepreneurship were also evident. Hence, the pilot demonstration project focused on helping the 96 households within the project area rebuild, recover, and rebound
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Werners, S.; Bhadwal, S.; Ahmad, B.; Gioli, G.; Regmi, B.; Pandey, A.; Mamnun, N.; Hassan, T.; Varma, N.; Saeed, B. A.
This framework document aims to introduce a proactive approach to assess adaptation needs and encourage timely adaptation
. The idea behind this approach is that if an assessment shows that specific policies and practices of stakeholders are at risk of failure due to climate change, corrections are encouraged and losses or damages can be prevented. The approach focuses on identifying whether and when the performance of policies, management, and social-cultural practices drops below a decisive level due to climate change, and adaptation is required. We call the moment at which a decisive change in performance is reached an ‘adaptation turning point’. The assessment of turning points shows there is an imperative to act, and it aims to help proactively and timely plan alternative strategies. In cases with a development or implementation deficit and where the performance of the existing policies and practices is already unsatisfactory, the turning point lies in the past. If, in these cases, changes can be attributed to climate change, the assessment of turning points helps identify the adaptation gap. With respect to new practices, the assessment of turning points shows when these practices become viable in order to facilitate a smooth transition to alternative systems and practices. For development policies, an adaptation turning point assessment asks whether development goals are achievable under climate change and can be sustained. By introducing this approach in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region we want to ascertain whether the assessment is a meaningful addition to adaptation approaches by allowing, in particular, for a substantial dialogue between stakeholders and scientists about the amount of change that is acceptable, when conditions could be reached that are unacceptable or more favourable, how likely these conditions are, and what adaptation to consider. The approach is not to be understood in isolation, but connects to other work in the HI-AWARE project, in particular the development of adaptation pathways and the assessment of critical moments. With this document we aim to deliver a framework for identifying adaptation turning points. The document offers a broad scoping of the approach, next to the identification of its potential application in HI-AWARE. This also marks the start of the dialogue in the HI-AWARE project on the applicability and value of the concept in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The assessment of adaptation turning points will be a contribution to other research in HI-AWARE, such as adaptation pathways development
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Faced with a complex and uncertain future, the coming years are even more so for mountains that contend with rising temperatures, dwindling natural resources, and rapidly increasing outmigration
. Therefore, the need to focus on affordable and replicable solutions that can affect significant change is more important than ever. The solutions in this book are based on years of hard work and collaboration between ICIMOD and its partners. These solutions provide valuable information about approaches and technologies that can inform communities, practitioners, decision makers and governments alike. In this way, we believe the “small” solutions presented can make a great contribution to global development agenda
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2017 was final year in ICIMOD's third medium-term action plan (2013-2017)
. This report documents several stories showing the cumulative impact of ICIMOD’s work over the last five years. They show how we combine efforts on multiple fronts – from working with communities, engaging policy makers and promoting collaboration across borders to generating new knowledge and building capacity – to create positive change in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH). During this timeframe many important lessons have emerged to help us chart the way forward
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Chaitra, A.; Upgupta, S.; Bhatta, L. D.; Mathangi, J.; Anitha, D. S.; Sindhu, K.; Kumar, V.; Agrawal, N. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.; Qamar, F.; Murthy, I. K.; Sharma, J.; Chaturvedi, R. K.; Bala, G.; Ravindranath, N. H.
The impacts of climate change in terms of forest vegetation shifts and Net Primary Productivity (NPP) changes are assessed for Brahmaputra, Koshi and Indus river basins for the mid (2021-2050) and long (2071-2100) terms for RCP4
.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Two Dynamical Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) and (Lund Postdam and Jena (LPJ), have been used for this purpose. The DGVMs are driven by the ensemble mean climate projections from 5 climate models that contributed to the CMIP5 data base. While both DGVMs project vegetation shifts in the forest areas of the basins, there are large differences in vegetation shifts projected by IBIS and LPJ. This may be attributed to differing representation of land surface processes and to differences in the number of vegetation types (Plant Functional Types) defined and simulated in the two models. However, there is some agreement in NPP changes as projected by both IBIS and LPJ, with IBIS mostly projecting a larger increase in NPP for the future scenarios. Despite the uncertainties with respect to climate change projections at river basin level and the differing impact assessments from different DGVMs, it is necessary to assess the “vulnerability” of the forest ecosystems and forest dependent communities to current climate risks and future climate change and to develop and implement resilience or adaptation measures. Assessment of the “vulnerability” and designing of the adaptation strategies could be undertaken for all the forested grids where both IBIS and LPJ project vegetation shifts
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