|
|
This paper develops a conceptual and generic framework design for the study of upstream-downstream linkages (UDL) in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region
. The framework application will to define changing upstreamdownstream linkages (UDL) and likely impacts on downstream regions. The results of such applications will be useful for policy makers, planners, decision makers, and researchers. It also addresses actors involved in Integrated Land and Water Resources Management (ILWRM) challenged by changing UDL processes, triggered by broader environmental changes such as climate change and human activities. This framework document defines the upstream downstream relationship. It describes the issues related to UDL mainly around land use and land cover (LULC) changes, erosion and sedimentation, climate change and infrastructure, which affect the availability of water in downstream areas
Read More
|
|
|
Estimating the hydrological regime of ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region is challenging due to a lack of sufficient monitoring stations
. In this paper, the spatial transferability of the model parameters of the process-oriented J2000 hydrological model was investigated in 2 glaciated subcatchments of the Koshi river basin in eastern Nepal. The catchments have a high degree of similarity with respect to their static landscape features. The model was first calibrated (1986–1991) and validated (1992–1997) in the Dudh Koshi subcatchment. The calibrated and validated model parameters were then transferred to the nearby Tamor catchment (2001–2009). Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were carried out for both subcatchments to discover the sensitivity range of the parameters in the two catchments. The model represented the overall hydrograph well in both subcatchments, including baseflow, rising and falling limbs; however, the peak flows were underestimated. The efficiency results according to both Nash–Sutcliffe (ENS) and the coefficient of determination (r2) were above 0.84 in both catchments (1986–1997 in Dudh Koshi and 2001–2009 in Tamor). The ranking of the parameters in respect to their sensitivity matched well for both catchments while taking ENS and log Nash–Sutcliffe (LNS) efficiencies into account. However, there were some differences in sensitivity to ENS and LNS for moderately and less-sensitive parameters, although the majority (13 out of 16 for ENS and 16 out of 16 for LNS) had a sensitivity response in a similar range. The generalized uncertainty likelihood estimation results suggest that the parameter uncertainty are most of the time within the range and the ensemble mean matches very good (ENS: 0.84) with observed discharge. The results indicate that transfer of the J2000 parameters to a neighbouring catchment in the Himalayan region with similar physiographic landscape characteristics is viable. This indicates the possibility of applying a calibrated process-based J2000 model to other ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region, which could provide important insights into the hydrological system dynamics and provide much needed information to support water resources planning and management
Read More
|
|
|
Understanding the upstream-downstream linkages in hydrological processes is essential for water resources planning in river basins
. Although there are many studies of individual aspects of these processes in the Himalayan region, studies along the length of the basins are limited. This study summarizes the present state of knowledge about linkages in hydrological processes between upstream and downstream areas of river basins in the Himalayan region based on a literature review. The paper studies the linkages between the changes in the physical environment of upstream areas (land use, snow storage, and soil erosion) and of climate change on the downstream water availability, flood and dry season flow, and erosion and sedimentation. It is argued that these linkages are complex due to the extreme altitudinal range associated with the young and fragile geology, extreme seasonal and spatial variation in rainfall, and diversity of anthropogenic processes. Based on the findings, the paper concludes that integrated systems analysis is required to understand the holistic complexity of upstream-downstream linkages of hydrological processes in the river basin context. The integrated land and water resources management (ILWRM) approach can be instrumental in developing adaptive solutions to problems and can also enable stakeholders of upstream and downstream areas with various interests and needs to work together for the better utilization and management of land and water resources. As a part of this, the specific circumstances of the upstream communities, who live in fragile and inaccessible mountain areas with limited resource opportunities, should be taken into account so that incentive mechanisms can be established to encourage and acknowledge their contribution
Read More
|
|
|
Catchment-scale hydrological modelling in the Himalayan region suffers from multiple issues that affect our ability to represent the hydrological dynamics of a river system
. Due to a lack of monitoring infrastructure, especially in the high-altitude areas, the spatial distribution of precipitation is essentially unknown. Therefore, the regionalization of precipitation in river basins is a challenging task that has implications in the modelling approach at different levels. This paper explores the uncertainty in modelled discharge using different precipitation input datasets in the glaciated catchment of the Dudh Kosi River basin in Eastern Nepal (3712 km2). The basin hosts some of the world's highest mountain peaks, including Mt Everest. Six precipitation stations, which cover mostly the lowland area of the basin, give a station density of one station per 618 km2. First, we examine precipitation dynamics in the study area based on the observed data. Second, the process-oriented distributed J2000 hydrological model is applied in the Dudh Kosi River basin. Third, the model is run with APHRODITE-(V1003R1), CPC-RFE-(2.0) and TRMM-(V7) precipitation products to compare observed and modelled discharge. Nearly 82% of the precipitation occurs during the monsoon season (June - September), and the limited station observations suggest that there is non-uniform distribution of precipitation in which the underlying topography has a great influence. The maximum precipitation occurred at the station which is located on the middle hills region, followed by the station located at the foothills of the Higher Himalaya. Compared to the observed precipitation, the TRMM product is found to be 7% less than the observed data, whereas the other two products were up to 35% less. The model was applied with the six stations data and the regionalization was carried out using Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method to simulate the hydrograph. The model was first applied between 1985-1997 in which the model simulates the hydrograph with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.85, a logarithm Nash-Sutcliffe of 0.93, and a coefficient of determination of 0.85. To apply the model during the recent period (2002-2007) when the rainfall products are available, the model was run with the same parameter sets. With observational inputs, high flows are underestimated for some years between 2002 and 2007. Out of the three products, the TRMM generates a better hydrograph, but Percentage BIAS (PBIAS) is -26%, compared to --17% with observed station data between 2002 and 2007. The APHRODITE and CPC-RFE datasets result in discharges that are underestimated by 47% and 51% respectively. The model results based on the three precipitation products suggest that discharge underestimation is due primarily to precipitation input. The lack of precipitation information brings additional challenges to hydrological modelling in the Himalayan region and future research should focus on precipitation observations and dynamics in high-altitude areas. Key words: Catchment hydrology, Himalayan region, J2000 hydrological model, Precipitation patter
Read More
|
|
|
This paper provides the results of hydrological modelling in a mesoscale glaciated alpine catchment of the Himalayan region
. In the context of global climate change, the hydrological regime of an alpine mountain is likely to be affected, which might produce serious implications for downstream water availability. The main objective of this study was to understand the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated catchment, the Dudh Kosi River basin, in Nepal, using the J2000 hydrological model and thereby understand how the rise in air temperature will affect the hydrological processes. The model is able to reproduce the overall hydrological dynamics quite well with an efficiency result of Nash–Sutcliffe (0.85), logarithm Nash–Sutcliffe (0.93) and coefficient of determination (0.85) for the study period. The average contribution from glacier areas to total streamflow is estimated to be 17%, and snowmelt (other than from glacier areas) accounts for another 17%. This indicates the significance of the snow and glacier runoff in the Himalayan region. The hypothetical rise in temperature scenarios at a rate of +2 and +4 °C indicated that the snowmelt process might be largely affected. An increase in snowmelt volume is noted during the premonsoon period, whereas the contribution during the monsoon season is significantly decreased. This occurs mainly because the rise in temperature will shift the snowline up to areas of higher altitude and thereby reduce the snow storage capacity of the basin. This indicates that the region is particularly vulnerable to global climate change and the associated risk of decreasing water availability to downstream areas. Under the assumed warming scenarios, it is likely that in the future, the river might shift from a ‘melt-dominated river’ to a ‘rain-dominated river’. The J2000 model should be considered a promising tool to better understand the hydrological dynamics in alpine mountain catchments of the Himalayan region. This understanding will be quite useful for further analysis of ‘what-if scenarios’ in the context of global climate and land-use changes and ultimately for sustainable Integrated Water Resources Management in the Himalayan region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Read More
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Tibetan Plateau (TP), with an average elevation of over 4000 m asl and an area of approximately 2
.5 × 106 km2, is the highest and most extensive highland in the world and has been called the 'Third Pole'. The TP exerts a huge influence on regional and global climate through thermal and mechanical forcing mechanisms. Because the TP has the largest cryospheric extent outside the polar region and is the source region of all the large rivers in Asia, it is widely recognized to be the driving force for both regional environmental change and amplification of environmental changes on a global scale. Within China it is recognized as the 'Asian water tower'. In this letter, we summarize the recent changes observed in climate elements and cryospheric indicators on the plateau before discussing current unresolved issues concerning climate change in the TP, including the temporal and spatial components of this change, and the consistency of change as represented by different data sources. Based on meteorological station data, reanalyses and remote sensing, the TP has shown significant warming during the last decades and will continue to warm in the future. While the warming is predominantly caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions, changes in cloud amount, snow-albedo feedback, the Asian brown clouds and land use changes also partly contribute. The cryosphere in the TP is undergoing rapid change, including glacier retreat, inconsistent snow cover change, increasing permafrost temperatures and degradation, and thickening of the active layer. Hydrological processes impacted by glacial retreat have received much attention in recent years. Future attention should be paid to additional perspectives on climate change in the TP, such as the variations of climate extremes, the reliability of reanalyses and more detailed comparisons of reanalyses with surface observations. Spatial issues include the identification of whether an elevational dependency and weekend effect exist, and the identification of spatial contrasts in temperature change, along with their causes. These issues are uncertain because of a lack of reliable data above 5000 m asl
Read More
|
email alert
or subscribe to the 
RSS feed.
