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The world warmed by about 0
.7°C in the 20th century. Every year in this century has been warmer than all but one in the last (1998, since you ask). If carbon-dioxide levels were magically to stabilise where they are now (almost 390 parts per million, 40% more than before the industrial revolution) the world would probably warm by a further half a degree or so as the ocean, which is slow to change its temperature, caught up. But CO2 levels continue to rise. Despite 20 years of climate negotiation, the world is still on an emissions trajectory that fits pretty easily into the “business as usual” scenarios drawn up by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
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Werners, S.; Bhadwal, S.; Ahmad, B.; Gioli, G.; Regmi, B.; Pandey, A.; Mamnun, N.; Hassan, T.; Varma, N.; Saeed, B. A.
This framework document aims to introduce a proactive approach to assess adaptation needs and encourage timely adaptation
. The idea behind this approach is that if an assessment shows that specific policies and practices of stakeholders are at risk of failure due to climate change, corrections are encouraged and losses or damages can be prevented. The approach focuses on identifying whether and when the performance of policies, management, and social-cultural practices drops below a decisive level due to climate change, and adaptation is required. We call the moment at which a decisive change in performance is reached an ‘adaptation turning point’. The assessment of turning points shows there is an imperative to act, and it aims to help proactively and timely plan alternative strategies. In cases with a development or implementation deficit and where the performance of the existing policies and practices is already unsatisfactory, the turning point lies in the past. If, in these cases, changes can be attributed to climate change, the assessment of turning points helps identify the adaptation gap. With respect to new practices, the assessment of turning points shows when these practices become viable in order to facilitate a smooth transition to alternative systems and practices. For development policies, an adaptation turning point assessment asks whether development goals are achievable under climate change and can be sustained. By introducing this approach in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region we want to ascertain whether the assessment is a meaningful addition to adaptation approaches by allowing, in particular, for a substantial dialogue between stakeholders and scientists about the amount of change that is acceptable, when conditions could be reached that are unacceptable or more favourable, how likely these conditions are, and what adaptation to consider. The approach is not to be understood in isolation, but connects to other work in the HI-AWARE project, in particular the development of adaptation pathways and the assessment of critical moments. With this document we aim to deliver a framework for identifying adaptation turning points. The document offers a broad scoping of the approach, next to the identification of its potential application in HI-AWARE. This also marks the start of the dialogue in the HI-AWARE project on the applicability and value of the concept in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The assessment of adaptation turning points will be a contribution to other research in HI-AWARE, such as adaptation pathways development
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In a warming world an increasing number of people are being exposed to heat, making a comfortable thermal environment an important need
. This study explores the potential of using Regional Internet Search Frequencies (RISF) for air conditioning devices as an indicator for thermal discomfort (i.e. dissatisfaction with the thermal environment) with the aim to quantify the adaptation potential of individuals living across different climate zones and at the high end of the temperature range, in India, where access to health data is limited. We related RISF for the years 2011–2015 to daily daytime outdoor temperature in 17 states and determined at which temperature RISF for air conditioning starts to peak, i.e. crosses a 'heat threshold', in each state. Using the spatial variation in heat thresholds, we explored whether people continuously exposed to higher temperatures show a lower response to heat extremes through adaptation (e.g. physiological, behavioural or psychological). State-level heat thresholds ranged from 25.9 °C in Madhya Pradesh to 31.0 °C in Orissa. Local adaptation was found to occur at state level: the higher the average temperature in a state, the higher the heat threshold; and the higher the intra-annual temperature range (warmest minus coldest month) the lower the heat threshold. These results indicate there is potential within India to adapt to warmer temperatures, but that a large intra-annual temperature variability attenuates this potential to adapt to extreme heat. This winter 'reset' mechanism should be taken into account when assessing the impact of global warming, with changes in minimum temperatures being an important factor in addition to the change in maximum temperatures itself. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of local heat thresholds and people's adaptive capacity, which can support the design of local thermal comfort standards and early heat warning systems
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Faced with a complex and uncertain future, the coming years are even more so for mountains that contend with rising temperatures, dwindling natural resources, and rapidly increasing outmigration
. Therefore, the need to focus on affordable and replicable solutions that can affect significant change is more important than ever. The solutions in this book are based on years of hard work and collaboration between ICIMOD and its partners. These solutions provide valuable information about approaches and technologies that can inform communities, practitioners, decision makers and governments alike. In this way, we believe the “small” solutions presented can make a great contribution to global development agenda
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2017 was final year in ICIMOD's third medium-term action plan (2013-2017)
. This report documents several stories showing the cumulative impact of ICIMOD’s work over the last five years. They show how we combine efforts on multiple fronts – from working with communities, engaging policy makers and promoting collaboration across borders to generating new knowledge and building capacity – to create positive change in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH). During this timeframe many important lessons have emerged to help us chart the way forward
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Excessive demand for ecosystem services arising from rapidly growing human population and several anthropogenic activities have led to the extensive modification of vital ecosystems of the world
. This has generated global concerns as this undermines ecosystem functioning and resilience and thus threatens the ability of ecosystems to continuously supply services. The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals can only be met when ecosystem degradation is halted and further loss of ecosystem services is controlled, and only if the natural capital and assets can be utilized in a sustainable way. Therefore, regional, national and local assessments of ecosystem and their services are needed to identify and develop an effective policy in response to ecosystem degradation. Despite the multi-dimensional (ecological, socio-cultural and economic) importance of ecosystems to human society, there have been no serious efforts to assess the ecosystem services of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH). The benefits provided by ecosystems are inadequately recognized and resource users do not take into account the cost of ecosystem degradation in their resource management decisions, since there is very limited understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the values that are being lost through degradation
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Funded by the European Union with a grant of 10 million euros, the Support to Rural Livelihoods and Climate Change Adaptation in the Himalayas (Himalica) Programme successfully developed, tested and scaled innovative livelihoods options to increase the resilience of mountain communities in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH)
. It was implemented with partners in five HKH countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan
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The Kailash Sacred Landscape Conservation and Development Initiative (KSLCDI) is a transboundary collaborative programme that works in western Nepal, northeastern Uttarakhand in India, and the south-western part of the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) in China
. To improve the livelihoods of poor and vulnerable mountain communities, KSLCDI established rural enterprises dealing in locally available high value niche products
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This paper develops a conceptual and generic framework design for the study of upstream-downstream linkages (UDL) in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region
. The framework application will to define changing upstreamdownstream linkages (UDL) and likely impacts on downstream regions. The results of such applications will be useful for policy makers, planners, decision makers, and researchers. It also addresses actors involved in Integrated Land and Water Resources Management (ILWRM) challenged by changing UDL processes, triggered by broader environmental changes such as climate change and human activities. This framework document defines the upstream downstream relationship. It describes the issues related to UDL mainly around land use and land cover (LULC) changes, erosion and sedimentation, climate change and infrastructure, which affect the availability of water in downstream areas
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The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), together with national partners, has developed and promoted mountainspecific resilient solutions for the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) by combining economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development
. The European Union-funded Support to Rural Livelihoods and Climate Change Adaptation in the Himalayas (Himalica) programme has worked in five countries, aiming to enhance the capacity of national and regional stakeholders to deal with livelihood development and environmental protection in the HKH, and to reduce poverty by increasing resilience and unlocking new livelihood opportunities
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