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The world warmed by about 0
.7°C in the 20th century. Every year in this century has been warmer than all but one in the last (1998, since you ask). If carbon-dioxide levels were magically to stabilise where they are now (almost 390 parts per million, 40% more than before the industrial revolution) the world would probably warm by a further half a degree or so as the ocean, which is slow to change its temperature, caught up. But CO2 levels continue to rise. Despite 20 years of climate negotiation, the world is still on an emissions trajectory that fits pretty easily into the “business as usual” scenarios drawn up by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
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How individuals perceive climate change is linked to whether individuals support climate policies and whether they alter their own climate-related behaviors, yet climate perceptions may be influenced by many factors beyond local shifts in weather
. Infrastructure designed to control or regulate natural resources may serve as an important lens through which people experience climate, and thus may influence perceptions. Likewise, perceptions may be influenced by personal beliefs about climate change and whether it is human-induced. Here we examine farmer perceptions of historical climate change, how perceptions are related to observed trends in regional climate, how perceptions are related to the presence of irrigation infrastructure, and how perceptions are related to beliefs and concerns about climate change. We focus on the regions of Marlborough and Hawke’s Bay in New Zealand, where irrigation is utilized on the majority of cropland. Data are obtained through analysis of historical climate records from local weather stations, interviews (n = 20), and a farmer survey (n = 490). Across both regions, no significant historical trends in annual precipitation and summer temperatures since 1980 are observed, but winter warming trends are significant at around 0.2–0.3 °C per decade. A large fraction of farmers perceived increases in annual rainfall despite instrumental records indicating no significant trends, a finding that may be related to greater perceived water availability associated with irrigation growth. A greater fraction of farmers perceived rainfall increases in Marlborough, where irrigation growth has been most substantial. We find those classes of farmers more likely to have irrigation were also significantly more likely to perceive an increase in annual rainfall. Furthermore, we demonstrate that perceptions of changing climate – regardless of their accuracy – are correlated with increased belief in climate change and an increased concern for future climate impacts. Those farmers that believe climate change is occurring and is human induced are more likely to perceive temperature increases than farmers who believe climate change is not occurring and is not human induced. These results suggest that perceptions are influenced by a variety of personal and environmental factors, including infrastructure, which may in turn alter decisions about climate adaptation
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This publication, featuring 25 case studies from across the mountain landscapes, gives an overview of the global changes affecting mountain farming and the strategies that mountain communities have developed to cope
. Each study also presents a set of lessons and recommendations, meant to inform and benefit mountain communities, policy-makers, development experts and academics who work to support mountain farmers and to protect mountains. Enabling mountain communities to learn from each other’s experiences and gather inspirational ideas from around the world will help enhance their resilience
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The report explains how governments will need to take new measures to deal with extreme impacts and prepare for losses due to climate change
. Unless substantial efforts are taken immediately to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and encourage climate resilient development, global warming could exceed 4 and even 6°C. The costs will place a massive burden even on industrialized countries, whilst massively increasing poverty and reversing development gains in poorer regions. The figures are staggering, conservative estimates show that we could risk around 2 trillion USD in economic and non-economic impacts worldwide by the year 2060 combined with potentially irreversible losses to ecosystems and biodiversity
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This paper takes a broader view and explores the multiple effects that global warming and climate change could have on food production and food security
. Dealing with climate change would require strengthening the resilience of farmers and rural people and help them adapt to the impact of climate change. The research hence looks into how adaptation can go hand-in-hand with mitigation and how these measures can be integrated into the overall development approaches and agenda. This paper also explores how adaptation activities can results in mitigation as co-benefits and also how these measures can be integrated into the overall development approaches and agenda. At the same time, it is important to assess inter-linkages between ecosystem services and food production and how ecosystem based adaptation will add to food security
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We study the interdecadal-scale variability over the Himalayas/Tibetan Plateau (H/TP) to deepen the understanding of Earth's important ecosystem after the recent controversy about glaciers melting in the Himalayan Mountains
. We present a new statistical reconstruction of annual temperature variability back to 1901 for the Pyramid Automated Weather Station of the Ev-K2-CNR Committee, located at the base of the Mount Everest. Our reconstruction using recorded weather station data compared with the Climate Research Unit temperature pattern data indicate that in recent decades the warming trend over the H/TP has been faster than during any equivalent period in the last century. Positive temperature anomalies (mostly observed after 1970) were found to be correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacifical Decadal Oscillation indices, but unevenly correlated with the Northern Hemisphere (NH) land-surface temperature. Such decoupled response between H/TP and NH suggests the mechanisms of global warming are only marginally influencing the H/TP climate. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Societ
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Climate change owing to global warming is a paramount concern for society in the twenty-first century, and it is not an issue that can be solved by individual academic or scientific disciplines working in isolation
. Because climate change involves a wide range of interlinked problems, solutions must be pursued in an interdisciplinary manner. This book adopts just such a holistic approach in examining various aspects of global warming, and offers readers a comprehensive overview. First, the mapping of knowledge about global warming is presented as a framework for addressing the issue. This is followed by a discussion of risk in relation to global warming and of the communication of risk between academia and society. Impacts, adaptation strategies, the institution of a low-carbon society and a number of other policy concerns associated with climate change are then reviewed. Because human behaviour is a critical factor in the move towards a low-carbon society, issues involving quality of life are also presented, with an emphasis on philosophy. Finally, the book considers the integration of three scenarios for society—a low-carbon society, a resource-circulating society, and a society in harmony with nature—and presents a comprehensive vision of the future
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The Tibetan Plateau is the largest high-altitude landmass on Earth, with more than 45,000 glaciers that feed the major river systems in Asia, which in turn support 40% of the world's population
. As global warming continues, temperatures in the region are rising twice as fast as the global average, posing serious risks to hydrological systems, agriculture and critical infrastructure. Placing an ecological security lens on regional cooperation raises an important question about the extent to which the threat of large-scale climate-related disaster could trigger new forms of cooperative action. Current responses fall far short of ensuring a mutually secure future
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Mountain areas cover close to a quarter of the Earth's land surface; they provide essential ecosystem goods and services and are water towers for billions of people living downstream
. Nevertheless, the mountain agenda has not yet been addressed adequately by the UNFCCC climate deliberations and associated processes to reflect the need to improve and maintain mountain ecosystem services. The Prime Minister of Nepal, at UNFCCC COP 15, called on all the mountain countries and stakeholders to come together to a common platform of a 'Mountain Initiative for Climate Change Adaptation in Mountainous Regions' to ensure that mountain concerns get due attention in the climate change deliberations. The present paper (prepared jointly by ICIMOD and the Government of Nepal) provides a rationale and framework for the Mountain Initiative. It describes the context of the Initiative, elaborates the specific vulnerability of mountain people and the mountain environment, and highlights the importance of mountain ecosystem services for both mountain people and downstream communities. Finally, it calls for all stakeholders to develop a common vision and strong voice to ensure that mountain concerns are represented in future COP negotiations and there is more concrete support towards adaptation to global changes.
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