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Vij, S.; Moors, E.; Ahmad, B.; Uzzaman, A.; Bhadwal, S.; Biesbroek, R.; Gioli, G.; Groot, A.; Mallick, D.; Regmi, B.; Saeed, B. A.; Ishaq, S.; Thapa, B.; Werners, S. E.; Wester, P.
This paper analyses and assesses how existing policies and approaches in South Asia consider long-term climate change adaptation
. Presently, it is unclear what approaches are used in the existing policies to cope with the future climatic changes. Our research framework consists of two components. First, we identify and define key characteristics of adaptation policy approaches based on a review of scientific journal articles. The key characteristics identified are institutional flexibility, adaptive nature, scalability and reflexivity. Second, we analyse the presence of these characteristics in the climate change adaptation policies of Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan. Our findings show that the four South Asian countries contribute to only 8% of the total journal articles on adaptation policy, with least papers representing Pakistan and Nepal. Reviewing the adaptation policies, we find that except for the Climate Change Policy of Nepal, none of the policies discusses transboundary scale adaptation approaches. The identified adaptation policies lack focus on shared transboundary resources between the countries, and instead focus at national or sub-national scale. This is reflected by relatively low scores for the scalability characteristic. All the countries show high scores for institutional flexibility, suggesting that changing roles and responsibilities between government agencies for adaptation planning and implementation is accepted in the four countries. We conclude that to prevent a loss of flexibility and to promote scalability of shared transboundary resources, policy approaches such as anticipatory governance, robust decision-making, and adaptation pathways can be useful for long-term climate change adaptation
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Thapa, RB (2017) 'Kathmandu Metropolitan Area
.' In Y. Murayama, C. Kamusoko, A. Yamashita and R. C. Estoque (eds), Urban Development in Asia and Africa: Geospatial Analysis of Metropolises, 217-237. Singapore, Springer Singapore. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-3241-7_11 This chapter analyzes the origin and brief history of the Kathmandu Metropolitan Area (KMA), the national capital of Nepal, which forms the core of the nation’s most populous metropolitan area. It examines the urban primacy , urban land use/cover change patterns, and driving forces that influence the rapid urbanization of the KMA. In addition, it discusses the prospective implications of these elements for the future sustainable urban development of the metropolitan area. The KMA has been important economically, administratively, and politically for hundreds of years. During the past 25 years (1989–2014), the KMA has experienced tremendous growth that is expected to continue through 2030. These results suggest that the current urban development process is in a critical stage in which urban and fringe frontier areas will create unprecedented stress on land resources that will be manifested in river and forest ecosystems and other environmentally sensitive areas. These changes are driven by various interrelated physiographic as well as socioeconomic factors . Similar to many developing cities, the KMA has issues of poor management of urban expansion and infrastructure as well as disaster preparedness, resulting in environmental and socioeconomic consequences. However, possibilities are available for improving the urban environment and managing the potential land demands in the metropolitan area through the strict enforcement of sustainable urban development policies and changes in the current urbanization trend. The Gorkha earthquake on April 25, 2015, in Kathmandu has afforded an opportunity to revitalize the city. If such improvement measures are implemented, living conditions will be improved, enabling the KMA to become a world-class city
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AbstractStudy region : Kathmandu Valley, Capital city of Nepal Study focus : This study applied three hydrological models (i
.e., SWAT, HBV, and BTOPMC) to analyze the water balance components and their temporal and seasonal variations in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. The water balance components were investigated using the same precipitation, climatic data, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) as input variables for each model. The yearly and seasonal variations in each component and the interactions among them were analyzed. There was a close agreement between the monthly observed and calibrated runoff at the watershed scale, and all the three models captured well the flow patterns for most of the seasons. New hydrological insights for the region : The average annual runoff in the study watershed calculated by the SWAT, HBV, and BTOPMC models was 887, 834, and 865 mm, corresponding to 59%, 55%, and 57% of the annual precipitation, respectively. The average annual evapotranspiration (ET) was 625, 623, and 718 mm, and the estimated yearly average total water storage (TWS) was 5, -35, and 29 mm, respectively. The long-term average TWS component was similar in all three models. ET had the lowest inter-annual variation and runoff had the greatest inter-annual variation in all models. Predictive analysis using the three models suggested a reasonable range for estimates of runoff, ET, and TWS. Although there was variation in the estimates among the different models, our results indicate a possible range of variation for those values, which is a useful finding for the short- and long-term planning of water resource development projects in the study area. The effects of historical water use, water stress, and climatic projections using multi-model water balance approaches offer a useful direction for future studies to enhance our understanding of anthropogenic effects in the Kathmandu Valley
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AbstractStudy region : Kathmandu Valley, Capital city of Nepal Study focus : This study applied three hydrological models (i
.e., SWAT, HBV, and BTOPMC) to analyze the water balance components and their temporal and seasonal variations in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. The water balance components were investigated using the same precipitation, climatic data, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) as input variables for each model. The yearly and seasonal variations in each component and the interactions among them were analyzed. There was a close agreement between the monthly observed and calibrated runoff at the watershed scale, and all the three models captured well the flow patterns for most of the seasons. New hydrological insights for the region : The average annual runoff in the study watershed calculated by the SWAT, HBV, and BTOPMC models was 887, 834, and 865 mm, corresponding to 59%, 55%, and 57% of the annual precipitation, respectively. The average annual evapotranspiration (ET) was 625, 623, and 718 mm, and the estimated yearly average total water storage (TWS) was 5, −35, and 29 mm, respectively. The long-term average TWS component was similar in all three models. ET had the lowest inter-annual variation and runoff had the greatest inter-annual variation in all models. Predictive analysis using the three models suggested a reasonable range for estimates of runoff, ET, and TWS. Although there was variation in the estimates among the different models, our results indicate a possible range of variation for those values, which is a useful finding for the short- and long-term planning of water resource development projects in the study area. The effects of historical water use, water stress, and climatic projections using multi-model water balance approaches offer a useful direction for future studies to enhance our understanding of anthropogenic effects in the Kathmandu Valley
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Small-scale irrigation systems managed by farmers are facing multiple challenges including competing water demand, climatic variability and change, and socioeconomic transformation
. Though the relevant institutions for irrigation management have developed coping and adaptation mechanisms, the intensity and frequency of the changes have weakened their institutional adaptive capacity. Using case examples mostly from Nepal, this paper studies the interconnections between seven key dimensions of adaptive capacity: the five capitals (human, financial, natural, social, and physical), governance, and learning. Long-term adaptation requires harnessing the synergies and tradeoffs between generic adaptive capacity that fosters broader development goals and specific adaptive capacity that strengthens climate-risk management. Measuring and addressing the interrelations among the seven adaptive-capacity dimensions aids in strengthening the long term sustainability of farmer-managed irrigation systems
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United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6 targets access to water and sanitation for all people in the next 15 years
. However, for developing countries such as Nepal, it is more challenging to achieve this goal given its poor infrastructure and high population growth. To assess the water crisis in the most developed and populated area of Nepal, the Kathmandu Valley, we estimated available water resources and domestic water demand in the valley. We estimated a supply deficit of 102 million liters per day (MLD) in 2016, after completion of the first phase of the Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP). If the MWSP is completed within the specified timeframe, and sufficient treatment and distribution infrastructure is developed, then there would be no water deficit by 2023–2025. This indicates that the MWSP will make a significant contribution to the valley’s water security. However, emphasis must be given to utilizing all of the water available from the MWSP by developing sufficient water treatment and distribution infrastructure. Alternate mitigation options, such as planning land use for potential recharge, introducing micro- to macro-level rainwater harvesting structures, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources, and water demand-side management, would also be helpful
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This study attempts to estimate credit fungibility (CF) and analyses its factors, using the primary data of 208 smallholders from Punjab province of Pakistan
. Findings revealed that smallholders used a significant proportion of obtained credit on non-agricultural purposes. Among three groups of smallholders compared, that is, lower smallholders ([les]1.0 acre), middle smallholders (1.01-2.50 acres) and upper smallholders (2.51-5.00 acres), lower smallholders used nearly one-third of their obtained credit for non-agricultural purposes in spite of their highest dependency on credit to carry out their agricultural activities. In contrast, the other two groups of smallholders, whose dependency on credit was relatively low, had used a comparatively lower proportion of the credit for non-agricultural activities. The study also found that non-fixed assets and landholding size are the key factors of CF. Other factors such as non-farm income, household size, repayments of old loans, illiteracy and credit source also affected CF significantly, but with notable variations across the groups
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Kargel, J.; Leonard, G.; Paudel, L.; Regmi, D.; Bajracharya, S.; Fort, M.; Joshi, S.; Poudel, K.; Thapa, B.; Watanabe, T.
We have identified the likeliest cause of the Seti River disaster of May 5, 2012, in which a flash flood killed or left missing 72 people
. A cascade of deadly physical Earth processes combined with imprudent habitation on the lowest flood terraces and floodplain. The process cascade started with rockfalls into the Seti River gorge (observed via repeat ASTER imaging). The last rockfall—one to several weeks prior to the disaster-affected a knickpoint in the Seti River gorge and impounded glacial meltwater and spring snowmelt. The trigger was a large rock/ice avalanche originating from cornice ice on Annapurna IV, where part of the mass was channeled into the impoundment reservoir. That violent ground-surge event, plus possibly an air blast caused by a violent gravity flow of airborne debris—then burst the rockfall dam. This was not a glacier lake outburst flood. Glaciers were involved in the disaster by supplying meltwater, which was impounded by the rockfall dam, by triggering the disaster with collapse of cornice ice, and by contributing ice to the landslide and outburst flood. Debuttressing of moraine debris and ancient glacial lake sediment by retreat and thinning of glaciers also may have played a role—this is the only possible indirect link of the disaster to climate change. The rockfall and avalanche mass movements occurred independently of climate change. The narrow and easily blocked Seti River gorge was a key factor in the 2012 disaster, and it remains a unique component of this physiographic setting. A similar flood in this area may happen by a different cascade of Earth surface processes. An enormous mass of ancient unconsolidated glaciolacustrine and moraine sediment—many cubic kilometers—was discovered and is vulnerable to production of debris flows and hyperconcentrated slurry flows. Some aggravating processes occurring in the Sabche Cirque are related to climate change. Glaciers in that area are melting, and small lakes are forming. Although the lakes were not implicated in the 2012 disaster, the possibility exists for a small glacial lake outburst flood to trigger a larger mass movement. Such a debris flow could reach Pokhara directly. More likely, a debris flow in the Sabche Cirque could form another temporary and potentially dangerous impoundment dam in the gorge. Furthermore, the type of rockfall blockage that produced 2012’s natural impoundment reservoir is likely to happen repeatedly. Hence, there is a high capacity of the Earth system in this area to produce comparable or even bigger flash floods or mass flows. The likelihood of a further disaster is magnified by imprudent habitation of the river channel and lower floodplain. Of all the changes to the Pokhara Valley, human encroachment on the flood plain is the factor most related to increasing vulnerability, but it is also the one factor that could be remedied by a complete ban on construction on lower terraces, if that is politically feasible. Warning systems could help, but fairly relocating people in jeopardy would be more effectiv
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In pursuit of sustainable forest conservation, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Nepal have promoted participatory forest management (PFM) approaches such as community forestry, joint forest management, and social forestry
. This study assessed these approaches based on policy and legal frameworks, organizational arrangements, and decentralization of authority, which are considered the fundamental requirements for the success of PFM. The findings of the analysis revealed that although there is a tendency among all four countries moving toward PFM, their features and fundamentals vary considerably from one country to another. Overall, community forestry in Nepal appeared to be a robust participatory system, while the social forestry of Bangladesh?a highly centralized approach?is deemed very weak. The community forestry approach in Bhutan and joint forest management in India fall between these two extremes. Broad policy recommendations are outlined for promotion of genuine PFM
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This policy bried investigates key flows in exsisting international climate agreements as well as the consequences of excexxive climate finance fragmentation
. It also highlights the progress made at COP17 in Durban and the work that stll remains to be done
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