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As a stewardship for watershed services, an incentivizing mechanism of payment for ecosystem services (PES) has been increasingly discussed in global policy arena
. In this context, various models of incentivizing mechanisms have been implemented as a pilot program. This study assesses the existing financing mechanisms for watershed services at the national level and examines the pilot PES programs that have been implemented in four different sites of Nepal. Using various participatory and qualitative research methods; this study analyses institutional arrangement, operational procedures and implementation practices from the study sites. Our findings reveal that the pilot PES programs have shown fairly satisfactory outcomes in watershed management. Based on our findings, we argue that the PES mechanism can be a promising approach in financing sustainable watershed management in Nepal. Nevertheless, PES mechanism should be flexible and contextual in terms of institutional arrangement and needs to be strengthened with a strong linkage between service providers and service users, through a regulatory mechanism. An intermediary role of the local government is found to be utmost important to institutionalize the PES mechanism as a sustainable financing mechanism for ensuring watershed services in Nepal
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The Indus Basin plays a major role in the livelihood and well-being of nearly 268 million people
. The people who live there are either directly or indirectly dependent on the water generated from the snow and glacier melt in the upstream part of the basin. The Indus Basin has become increasingly vulnerable due to climate change, as the basin flow is largely derived from snow and glacier melt, which are sensitive to changes in climate. Current and future water availability in the basin is therefore a critical aspect in the future planning and management of water resources as well as for preparing effective adaptation measures to cope with changing climate scenarios. This chapter reviews the literature on future climate projections in the Indus Basin based on climate modeling of the region. A majority of the studies reviewed project an increase in temperature that is more prominent in the higher altitude under high-emission scenarios. An increase in precipitation is projected in the Upper Indus Basin, with a decreasing trend in the Lower Indus Basin
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This open access volume is the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region
. It comprises important scientific research on the social, economic, and environmental pillars of sustainable mountain development and will serve as a basis for evidence-based decision-making to safeguard the environment and advance people’s well-being. The compiled content is based on the collective knowledge of over 300 leading researchers, experts and policymakers, brought together by the Hindu Kush Himalayan Monitoring and Assessment Programme (HIMAP) under the coordination of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). This assessment was conducted between 2013 and 2017 as the first of a series of monitoring and assessment reports, under the guidance of the HIMAP Steering Committee: Eklabya Sharma (ICIMOD), Atiq Raman (Bangladesh), Yuba Raj Khatiwada (Nepal), Linxiu Zhang (China), Surendra Pratap Singh (India), Tandong Yao (China) and David Molden (ICIMOD and Chair of the HIMAP SC). This First HKH Assessment Report consists of 16 chapters, which comprehensively assess the current state of knowledge of the HKH region, increase the understanding of various drivers of change and their impacts, address critical data gaps and develop a set of evidence-based and actionable policy solutions and recommendations. These are linked to nine mountain priorities for the mountains and people of the HKH consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals. This book is a must-read for policy makers, academics and students interested in this important region and an essentially important resource for contributors to global assessments such as the IPCC reports
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The Koshi river basin sustains the livelihoods of millions of people in the upstream and downstream areas of the basin
. People rely on monsoon rainfall for agricultural production, hydropower generation and other livelihood activities. Climate change is expected to have serious implication on its environment. To reduce the adverse impacts of disasters and to better understand the implication of climate change for the sustainable development, initiative in this regard is necessary. Analysis of past meteorological trends and future climate projections can give us a sense of what to expect and how to prepare ourselves and manage available resources. In this paper, we have used a high-resolution climate model, viz., Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS), to project future climate scenario over the Koshi river basin for impact assessment. Three outputs of the Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Prediction (QUMP) simulations have been used to project the future climate. These simulations were selected from the 17-member Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE) using Hadley Centre Couple Model (HadCM3) based on the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. The future projections are analysed for three time slices 2011-2040 (near future), 2041-2070 (middle of the century) and 2071-2098 (distant future). Despite quantitative wet and cold bias, the model was able to resolve the seasonal pattern reasonably well. The model projects a decrease in rainfall in the near future and a progressive increase towards the end of the century. The projected change in rainfall is non-uniform, with increase over the southern plains and the middle mountains and decrease over the trans-Himalayan region. Simulation suggests that rainy days will be less frequent but more intense over the southern plains towards the end of the century. Further, the model projections indicate significant warming towards the end of the century. The rate of warming is slightly higher over the trans-Himalayan region during summer and over the southern plains during winter
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The Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins provide about 900 million people with water resources used for agricultural, domestic, and industrial purposes
. These river basins are marked as “climate change hotspots”, where climate change is expected to affect monsoon dynamics and the amount of meltwater from snow and ice, and thus the amount of water available. Simultaneously, rapid and continuous population growth as well as strong economic development will likely result in a rapid increase in water demand. Since quantification of these future trends is missing, it is rather uncertain how the future South Asian water gap will develop. To this end, we assess the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development on the future “blue” water gap in the IGB until the end of the 21st century. We apply a coupled modelling approach consisting of the distributed cryospheric–hydrological model SPHY, which simulates current and future upstream water supply, and the hydrology and crop production model LPJmL, which simulates current and future downstream water supply and demand. We force the coupled models with an ensemble of eight representative downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and a set of land use and socio-economic scenarios that are consistent with the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) marker scenarios 1 and 3. The simulation outputs are used to analyse changes in the water availability, supply, demand, and gap. The outcomes show an increase in surface water availability towards the end of the 21st century, which can mainly be attributed to increases in monsoon precipitation. However, despite the increase in surface water availability, the strong socio-economic development and associated increase in water demand will likely lead to an increase in the water gap during the 21st century. This indicates that socio-economic development is the key driver in the evolution of the future South Asian water gap. The transgression of future environmental flows will likely be limited, with sustained environmental flow requirements during the monsoon season and unmet environmental flow requirements during the low-flow season in the Indus and Ganges river basins
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The Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins provide about 900 million people with water resources used for agricultural, domestic, and industrial purposes
. These river basins are marked as “climate change hotspots”, where climate change is expected to affect monsoon dynamics and the amount of meltwater from snow and ice, and thus the amount of water available. Simultaneously, rapid and continuous population growth as well as strong economic development will likely result in a rapid increase in water demand. Since quantification of these future trends is missing, it is rather uncertain how the future South Asian water gap will develop. To this end, we assess the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development on the future “blue” water gap in the IGB until the end of the 21st century. We apply a coupled modelling approach consisting of the distributed cryospheric–hydrological model SPHY, which simulates current and future upstream water supply, and the hydrology and crop production model LPJmL, which simulates current and future downstream water supply and demand.We force the coupled models with an ensemble of eight representative downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and a set of land use and socio-economic scenarios that are consistent with the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) marker scenarios 1 and 3. The simulation outputs are used to analyse changes in the water availability, supply, demand, and gap. The outcomes show an increase in surface water availability towards the end of the 21st century, which can mainly be attributed to increases in monsoon precipitation. However, despite the increase in surface water availability, the strong socio-economic development and associated increase in water demand will likely lead to an increase in the water gap during the 21st century. This indicates that socio-economic development is the key driver in the evolution of the future South Asian water gap. The transgression of future environmental flows will likely be limited, with sustained environmental flow requirements during the monsoon season and unmet environmental flow requirements during the low-flow season in the Indus and Ganges river basins
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In 2015, with the signing of the “Paris Agreement”, 195 countries committed to limiting the increase in global temperature to less than 2 °C with respect to pre-industrial levels and to aim at limiting the increase to 1
.5 °C by 2100. The regional ramifications of those thresholds remain however largely unknown and variability in the magnitude of change and the associated impacts are yet to be quantified. We provide a regional quantitative assessment of the impacts of a 1.5 versus a 2 °C global warming for a major global climate change hotspot: the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river basins (IGB) in South Asia, by analyzing changes in climate change indicators based on 1.5 and 2 °C global warming scenarios. In the analyzed ensemble of general circulation models, a global temperature increase of 1.5 °C implies a temperature increase of 1.4–2.6 (μ = 2.1) °C for the IGB. For the 2.0 °C scenario, the increase would be 2.0–3.4 (μ = 2.7) °C. We show that climate change impacts are more adverse under 2 °C versus 1.5 °C warming and that changes in the indicators’ values are in general linearly correlated to average temperature increase. We also show that for climate projections following Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, which may be more realistic, the regional temperature increases and changes in climate change indicators are much stronger than for the 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios
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This paper develops a conceptual and generic framework design for the study of upstream-downstream linkages (UDL) in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region
. The framework application will to define changing upstreamdownstream linkages (UDL) and likely impacts on downstream regions. The results of such applications will be useful for policy makers, planners, decision makers, and researchers. It also addresses actors involved in Integrated Land and Water Resources Management (ILWRM) challenged by changing UDL processes, triggered by broader environmental changes such as climate change and human activities. This framework document defines the upstream downstream relationship. It describes the issues related to UDL mainly around land use and land cover (LULC) changes, erosion and sedimentation, climate change and infrastructure, which affect the availability of water in downstream areas
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Future hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, may pose serious threats for the livelihoods in the upstream domains of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra
. For this reason, the impacts of climate change on future hydrological extremes is investigated in these river basins. We use a fully-distributed cryospheric-hydrological model to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes and force the model with an ensemble of 8 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model is calibrated on observed daily discharge and geodetic mass balances. The climate forcing and the outputs of the hydrological model are used to evaluate future changes in climatic extremes, and hydrological extremes by focusing on high and low flows. The outcomes show an increase in the magnitude of climatic means and extremes towards the end of the 21st century where climatic extremes tend to increase stronger than climatic means. Future mean discharge and high flow conditions will very likely increase. These increases might mainly be the result of increasing precipitation extremes. To some extent temperature extremes might also contribute to increasing discharge extremes, although this is highly dependent on magnitude of change in temperature extremes. Low flow conditions may occur less frequently, although the uncertainties in low flow projections can be high. The results of this study may contribute to improved understanding on the implications of climate change for the occurrence of future hydrological extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region
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Snow governs interaction between atmospheric and land surface processes in high mountains, and is also source of fresh water
. It is thus important to both climate scientists and local communities. However, our understanding of snow cover dynamics in terms of space and time is limited across the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, which is known to be a climatically sensitive region. We used MODIS snow cover area (SCA) data (2003–2012), APHRODITE temperature data (2000–2007), and monthly long term in-situ river discharge data of the Gandaki (1968–2010), Koshi (1977–2010) and Manas (1987–2004) basins to analyse variations among four basins. We gained insights into short term SCA and temperature, long term discharge trends, and regional variability thereby. Strong correlations were observed among SCA, temperature and discharge thereby highlighting the strong nexus between them. Temporal and spatial snow cover variability across the basins is strongly coupled with the variability of two weather systems: Western Disturbances (WD) and Indian Monsoon System (IMS), and strongly influenced by topography. Manifestation of these variability in terms if downstream discharge can have repercussion to water based sectors: hydropower and agriculture, as low flow seasons is seen affected. This study adds to our knowledge of snow fall and melt dynamics in the HKH region, and intra-annual snow melt contributions to downstream discharges. The study is limited by short span of data and it is desirable to perform a similar study using data representing a much longer time span
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