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Soncini, A.; Bocchiola, D.; Confortola, G.; Minora, U.; Vuillermoz, E.; Salerno, F.; Viviano, G.; Shrestha, D.; Senese, A.; Smiraglia, C.; Diolaiuti, G.
Assessment of future water resources under climate change is required in the Himalayas, where hydrological cycle is poorly studied and little understood
. This study focuses on the upper Dudh Koshi river of Nepal (151 km2, 4200–8848 m a.s.l.) at the toe of Mt. Everest, nesting the debris covered Khumbu, and Khangri Nup glaciers (62 km2). New data gathered during three years of field campaigns (2012–2014) were used to set up a glacio-hydrological model describing stream flows, snow and ice melt, ice cover thickness and glaciers' flow dynamics. The model was validated, and used to assess changes of the hydrological cycle until 2100. Climate projections are used from three Global Climate Models used in the recent IPCC AR5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Flow statistics are estimated for two reference decades 2045–2054, and 2090–2099, and compared against control run CR, 2012–2014. During CR we found a contribution of ice melt to stream flows of 55% yearly, with snow melt contributing for 19%. Future flows are predicted to increase in monsoon season, but to decrease yearly (− 4% vs CR on average) at 2045–2054. At the end of century large reduction would occur in all seasons, i.e. − 26% vs CR on average at 2090–2099. At half century yearly contribution of ice melt would be on average 45%, and snow melt 28%. At the end of century ice melt would be 31%, and snow contribution 39%. Glaciers in the area are projected to thin largely up to 6500 m a.s.l. until 2100, reducing their volume by − 50% or more, and their ice covered area by − 30% or more. According to our results, in the future water resources in the upper Dudh Koshi would decrease, and depend largely upon snow melt and rainfall, so that adaptation measures to modified water availability will be required
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Climatic time series for high-elevation Himalayan regions are decidedly scarce
. Although glacier shrinkage is now sufficiently well described, the changes in precipitation and temperature at these elevations are less clear. This contribution shows that the surface area variations of unconnected glacial ponds, i.e. ponds not directly connected to glacier ice, but that may have a glacier located in their hydrological basin, can be considered as suitable proxies for detecting past changes in the main hydrological components of the water balance. On the south side of Mt Everest, glacier melt and precipitation have been found to be the main drivers of unconnected pond surface area changes (detected mainly with Landsat imagery). In general, unconnected ponds have decreased significantly by approximately 10 ± 5 % in terms of surface area over the last 50 years (1963–2013 period) in the study region. Here, an increase in precipitation occurred until the mid-1990s followed by a decrease until recent years. Until the 1990s, glacier melt was constant. An increase occurred in the early 2000s, while a declining trend in maximum temperature has caused a reduction in the glacier melt during recent years
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Understanding the future evolution of Himalayan glaciers is important in terms of runoff that provides an essential water source to local populations and has far-reaching downstream impacts
. However, the climatic response of glaciers in High-Mountain Asia is complicated by ice stagnation and considerable supraglacial debris coverage, which insulates the ice from warming. Typical runoff modelling only crudely incorporates debris cover and there is currently no consensus on how significantly this may impact future glacier and runoff evolution. Here, a glacio-hydrological model is modified to incorporate fully distributed debris cover, using melt reduction factors that vary depending on debris thickness, and to redistribute mass losses according to observed surface elevation changes. A range of debris thickness data are implemented, including a remote-sensing survey and a modelled debris surface, to analyse the sensitivity of glacier evolution and runoff to possible future debris-cover changes in a series of experiments in the upper Khumbu catchment, Nepal. Simulations are undertaken using climate input data from Regional Climate Model simulations from CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) which are further statistically downscaled using data from the Pyramid meteorological station. Results suggest that the accurate calibration of the model to volume change compensates for the inclusion of distributed debris cover but only if the climatic sensitivity of the calibration period (1999–2010) and the nature of the debris-covered surface remain constant during future simulations. Altering the nature of the debris surface has a significant impact on simulated ice volume, with melt rates under debris suppressed by up to 85 %. The sensitivity of runoff ranges from 60 to 140 million m3 yr-1, although there are considerable uncertainties relating to non-glacial snow melt. Moreover, incorporating locally enhanced melt at ice cliffs into the model also impacts upon volume loss and discharge, with a greater proportion of ice cliffs leading to enhanced volume losses compared to a homogeneous debris surface. Finally, using the most representative model configuration, the future evolution of Khumbu Glacier under various climate scenarios shows continued mass losses with a reduction in volume ranging from 60 % to 97 % by 2100. Runoff trends show an initial increase followed by an eventual decrease, with runoff in 2100 predicted to be 8 % lower than current levels
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Salerno, F.; Cuccillato, E.; Caroli, P.; Bajracharya, B.; Manfredi, E. C.; Viviano, G.; Thakuri, S.; Flury, B.; Basani, M.; Giannino, F.; Panzeri, D.
High mountains have sensitive social-ecological systems (SESs) characterized by fragility, complexity, and marginality
. The local economies of these environments mainly rely on primary production, tourism, and leisure activities; thus human–ecosystem interactions are intricately linked. Many authors stress that this strict relationship must be assisted with a participatory approach involving interested stakeholders in the conceptualization, specification, and synthesis of knowledge and experience into useable information for the express purpose of addressing a problem complex. This paper presents experience garnered with a participatory modeling framework combining hard and soft methodology in 2 case studies: the Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone (Nepal) and the Central Karakoram National Park (Pakistan). The modeling framework was developed based on local stakeholders' demands and needs; it consists of 5 modules, briefly presented here along with their conceptual background. In developing the framework, particular emphasis was given to considering the needs of decision-makers at the local level, rather than simply providing technical solutions to abstract problems. From the development of this modeling process, a need emerged to structure a management-oriented research module in order to generate management knowledge that is both stakeholder-relevant and evidence-based. The application of the framework in the 2 cases studies showed that the modeling can trigger valuable discussion among stakeholders as well as guidance for management-oriented research and feedback loops ensuring validation of knowledge. In addition, the resulting scenarios can help decision-makers in defining pathways for sustainable development in mountain areas, where people's livelihoods are closely dependent on ecosystems. The framework was developed in such a way that it can be replicated in other mountain areas with similar challenges
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New tools and methodologies are required in systemic planning and management of mountain protected areas
. Among others we propose here a decision support toolbox (DST) conceived as an integrated collection of both soft and hard system methodologies, consisting of participatory and computer-based modules to provide a set of integrated, self-contained tools and approaches to support decision-making processes in the management of mountain protected areas. The Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone (SNPBZ) in Nepal was taken as a pilot case. A number of participatory exercises such as participatory 3-dimensional modeling, scenario planning, and qualitative modeling were carried out to understand social-ecological processes and generate a systemic view over space and time. The qualitative models were then converted into computer-based system dynamics models. The design and development of DST software were carried out with an incremental and modular approach. This process involved stakeholder analysis and decision-making processes through a series of consultations. The software was developed with the main modules including scenario analysis, spatial analysis, and knowledge base. The scenario analysis module runs system dynamics models built in Simile software and provides functions to link them with spatial data for model inputs and outputs. The spatial analysis module provides the basic geographic information system functions to explore, edit, analyze, and visualize spatial information. The knowledge base module was developed as a metadata management system for different categories of information such as spatial data, bibliography, research data, and models. The development of DST software, especially system dynamics modeling and its linkage with spatial components, provided an important methodological approach for spatial and temporal integration. Furthermore, training and interactions with park managers and concerned stakeholders showed that DST is a useful platform for integrating data and information and better understanding ecosystem behavior as a basis for management decisions
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Amatya, L. K.; Cuccillato, E.; Haack, B.; Shadie, P.; Sattar, N.; Bajracharya, B.; Shrestha, B.; Caroli, P.; Panzeri, D.; Basani, M.; Schommer, B.; Flury, B.; Manfredi, E. C.; Salerno, F.
The planning and sustainable management of complex social-ecological systems (SESs) in high mountain areas such as the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKKH) region requires an approach that takes account of both environmental issues and local population needs
. The HKKH Partnership Project developed methodologies and tools for systemic planning and management of social-ecological systems at local, regional, and national levels in the HKKH region, with a special focus on 3 protected areas in Nepal, Pakistan, and China. The adopted approach brought together researchers, policy-makers, and managers; it bridged the gap between research and management priorities and enabled communication to address the needs of communities while promoting conservation. Lessons learned are described and conclusions made on appropriate methods for the management of SESs in other regions
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Salerno, F.; Viviano, G.; Thakuri, S.; Flury, B.; Maskey, R. K.; Khanal, S. N.; Bhuju, D.; Carrer, M.; Bhochhibhoya, S.; Melis, M. T.; Giannino, F.; Staiano, A.; Carteni, F.; Mazzoleni, S.; Cogo, A.; Sapkota, A.; Shrestha, S.; Pandey, R. K.; Manfredi, E. C.
This paper presents the results of management-oriented research on energy, forest, and human health issues in a remote mountain area, the Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone (SNPBZ), Nepal
. The research was based on a broader, integrated participatory framework ultimately intended for use in adaptive management. The present study focused on the application of a participatory modeling framework to address problems related to energy demand and consumption, forest condition, and indoor air pollution, which were defined by the stakeholders as important issues to be addressed. The models were developed using a generalizing design that allows for user-friendly adaptation to other contexts (free download at Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.. Moreover, we simulated management scenarios in collaboration with all modeling actors with the aim of building consensus on the understanding of the system as well as supporting decision-makers' capacity not only to respond to changes, but also to anticipate them. Importantly, the system dynamics assessment found that the SNPBZ forests are affected by an increasing demand for fuelwood (occurring due to tourism growth), as one of the main sources of energy. Selected forests show an average reduction of 38 in forest biomass from 1992 to 2008. This shows that the business-as-usual scenario is unlikely to result in the preservation of the current forest status; in fact, such preservation would require 75 of fuelwood to be replaced with alternative energy sources. At the same time, a 75 reduction of fuelwood use (and an 80 reduction of dung use) would reduce indoor carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations to the standard limits for CO exposure set by the World Health Organization
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Manfredi, E. C.; Flury, B.; Viviano, G.; Thakuri, S.; Khanal, S. N.; Jha, P. K.; Maskey, R. K.; Kayastha, R. B.; Kafle, K. R.; Bhochhibhoya, S.; Ghimire, N. P.; Shrestha, B. B.; Chaudhary, G.; Giannino, F.; Carten, F.; Mazzoleni, S.; Salerno, F.
The problem of supporting decision- and policy-makers in managing issues related to solid waste and water quality was addressed within the context of a participatory modeling framework in the Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone in Nepal
. We present the main findings of management-oriented research projects conducted within this framework, thus providing an overview of the current situation in the park regarding solid waste and water quality issues. We found that most of the solid waste generated in the park is composed of organic matter, paper, and minor reused waste that is mainly reused for cattle feeding and manure, while disposal of other nondegradable categories of collected waste (glass, metal, and plastic) is not properly managed. Particularly, burning or disposal in open dumps poses a great hazard to environmental, human, and animal health, as most dump sites situated close to water courses are prone to regular flooding during the rainy season, thereby directly contaminating river water. Pollutants and microbiological contamination in water bodies were found and anthropogenic activities and hazardous practices such as solid waste dump sites, open defecation, and poor conditions of existing septic tanks are suggested as possibly affecting water quality. Collection of these data on solid waste and water quality and compilation of management information on the targeted social-ecological system allowed us to develop consensus-building models to be used as management supporting tools. By implementing such models, we were able to simulate scenarios identifying and evaluating possible management solutions and interventions in the park. This work reveals insights into general dynamics that can support the quest for solutions to waste and water quality management problems in other protected areas and mountain landscapes where traditional livelihood and land use patterns are changing under the influence of a growing population, changing consumption patterns, and international tourism
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Amatya, L. K.; Cuccillato, E.; Haack, B.; Shadie, P.; Sattar, N.; Bajracharya, B.; Shrestha, B.; Caroli, P.; Panzeri, D.; Basani, M.; Schommer, B.; Flury, B.; Manfredi, E. C.; Salerno, F.
The planning and sustainable management of complex social-ecological systems (SESs) in high mountain areas such as the Hindu KushKarakoramHimalaya (HKKH) region requires an approach that takes account of both environmental issues and local population needs
. The HKKH Partnership Project developed methodologies and tools for systemic planning and management of social-ecological systems at local, regional, and national levels in the HKKH region, with a special focus on 3 protected areas in Nepal, Pakistan, and China. The adopted approach brought together researchers, policy-makers, and managers; it bridged the gap between research and management priorities and enabled communication to address the needs of communities while promoting conservation. Lessons learned are described and conclusions made on appropriate methods for the management of SESs in other regions
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