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Chaitra, A.; Upgupta, S.; Bhatta, L. D.; Mathangi, J.; Anitha, D. S.; Sindhu, K.; Kumar, V.; Agrawal, N. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.; Qamar, F.; Murthy, I. K.; Sharma, J.; Chaturvedi, R. K.; Bala, G.; Ravindranath, N. H.
The impacts of climate change in terms of forest vegetation shifts and Net Primary Productivity (NPP) changes are assessed for Brahmaputra, Koshi and Indus river basins for the mid (2021-2050) and long (2071-2100) terms for RCP4
.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Two Dynamical Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) and (Lund Postdam and Jena (LPJ), have been used for this purpose. The DGVMs are driven by the ensemble mean climate projections from 5 climate models that contributed to the CMIP5 data base. While both DGVMs project vegetation shifts in the forest areas of the basins, there are large differences in vegetation shifts projected by IBIS and LPJ. This may be attributed to differing representation of land surface processes and to differences in the number of vegetation types (Plant Functional Types) defined and simulated in the two models. However, there is some agreement in NPP changes as projected by both IBIS and LPJ, with IBIS mostly projecting a larger increase in NPP for the future scenarios. Despite the uncertainties with respect to climate change projections at river basin level and the differing impact assessments from different DGVMs, it is necessary to assess the “vulnerability” of the forest ecosystems and forest dependent communities to current climate risks and future climate change and to develop and implement resilience or adaptation measures. Assessment of the “vulnerability” and designing of the adaptation strategies could be undertaken for all the forested grids where both IBIS and LPJ project vegetation shifts
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Least Developed Countries are likely to be hit the hardest by climate change and need focused efforts towards adaptation
. Nepal recognizes that it needs to integrate climate change adaptation into various policies, but limited understanding of how to make these policies coherent is among the factors that hinder effective adaptation action. This can lead to wasted resources and lost opportunities. This paper applies concepts from policy coherence for development frameworks and policy content analysis to examine coherence in Nepal’s climate and forest policies—and discusses the factors hindering effective implementation. The policies are analyzed at the horizontal/external level at three layers—motivation, measures, and planned implementation process. The paper finds that policies are more consistent on motivation level and adaptation measures, but are less coherent on implementation. The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) is more explicit in identifying institutions, organizations, roles and responsibilities, resource allocation (financial), and a monitoring and evaluation plan for climate change adaptation while other policies such as Climate Change Policy 2011, National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan 2014–2020, Forest Policy 2015, and Forest Sector Strategy 2016 have critical gaps in this area. This paper conclude that formulation of a policy, articulating targets, and mobilizing financial resources are in themselves not sufficient to effectively address climate change adaptation. Policy-based legislation is required, together with development of a supportive collaborative multi-stakeholder approach at different levels of governance, backed up by effective, collaborative monitoring and enforcement
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Mainstreaming climate concerns in cross-sectoral planning and teamwork among neighbouring states in the Indian Himalayan Region are persistent hurdles in addressing climate adaptation at the state and regional levels
. The authors propose interstate cooperation facilitation through a specific knowledge network, decentralised and coordinated approach for capacity building, joint adaptation project formulation and implementation, high-level coordination mechanism, and the creation of an adaptation portal as a novel way forward
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Wetlands cover 5–10% of the earth’s terrestrial surface
. They are important ecosystems that supply goods and services for human wellbeing. Despite their rich biodiversity, social and economic values, wetlands are in immense pressure, and are undergoing constant degradation due to several anthropogenic forces, such as urban development, expansion of agricultural land and industrial pollution. The global extent of wetlands in the 20th century is estimated to have declined by 64–71%, and losses and degradation of wetlands continue worldwide, which will eventually have significant impacts on the supply of ecosystem services and affect the livelihoods of people [Ramsar Secretariat 2015: State of the World’s Wetlands and their Services (Task No. 18)]. In Asia alone, about 5,000 km2 of wetlands vanish each year, with substantial impacts on ecosystem services, biodiversity and the livelihoods of people. In the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, there is only limited information available on the overall status of wetlands and resource exploitation because of the difficult geographic terrain and harsh climatic conditions. Thus, to generate a better understanding of wetlands in the region, a common platform was sought to exchange information, learnings and research findings. ICIMOD, in collaboration with the Kunming Institute of Botany (KIB) and the Chengdu Institute of Biology (CIB) under Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), and the Yunnan Institute of Environmental Science (YIES), organized a Regional Expert Consultative Symposium on ‘Managing Wetland Ecosystem in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: Securing Services for Livelihoods’ in Dali, Yunnan Province of China
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Faced with a complex and uncertain future, the coming years are even more so for mountains that contend with rising temperatures, dwindling natural resources, and rapidly increasing outmigration
. Therefore, the need to focus on affordable and replicable solutions that can affect significant change is more important than ever. The solutions in this book are based on years of hard work and collaboration between ICIMOD and its partners. These solutions provide valuable information about approaches and technologies that can inform communities, practitioners, decision makers and governments alike. In this way, we believe the “small” solutions presented can make a great contribution to global development agenda
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This short report illustrates a selection of the key findings, successes and lessons learnt of the Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) over the period 2012–2017
. It focusses on a few, selected approaches that HICAP has taken in the fields of science, action research, pilot activities, and communications and outreach. It also highlights some of the important lessons learnt over the duration of the programme, particularly in terms of policy outreach, and the strengths and also challenges of partnerships. HICAP is an ongoing programme continuing until the end of 2018
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Suxia, L.; Wenhao, D.; Xingguo, M.; Sheng, W.; Changming, L.; Xian, L.; Daming, H.; Bajracharya, S. R.; Shrestha, A.; Agrawal, N. K.
The VIP eco-hydrological model and HIMS model were used to simulate hydrological processes from 1957 to 2012
. Based on the ensemble projections of CMIP5 RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the runoff in the two basins were predicted. The results show that in the past 50 years air temperatures in the two basins were continually increasing and the rates over the upstream plateau were higher than the lower downstream. The tendency of annual precipitation was not significant, while the precipitation in spring season was increasing. The total water resources were around 65 billion to 85 billion m3 and no noticeable tendency was detected. Spatially, the water resources kept the pattern of “higher in south and lower in north”. The variability of water resources in Lancang River was more significant than that of Nujiang River. In the future climate scenarios, it will become warmer and wetter, the runoff will increase with lower spatial variability. Being with high seasonal variability, there will still be challenges in the water resources security over the whole basins
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High outmigration of men from Kavre district, Nepal, results in women having to take over the responsibility for farming
. They face challenges of decreasing water availability and frequent dry spells, with hardly any support from the outside. The Resilient Mountain Villages approach combines local knowledge and practices with scientific risk and vulnerability assessments, to contribute to disaster risk reduction with simple, affordable and people-driven solutions
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