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Rapidly accelerating climate change in the Himalaya is projected to have major implications for montane species, ecosystems, and mountain farming and pastoral systems
. A geospatial modeling approach based on a global environmental stratification is used to explore potential impacts of projected climate change on the spatial distribution of bioclimatic strata and ecoregions within the transboundary Kailash Sacred Landscape (KSL) of China, India and Nepal. Twenty-eight strata, comprising seven bioclimatic zones, were aggregated to develop an ecoregional classification of 12 ecoregions (generally defined by their potential dominant vegetation type), based upon vegetation and landcover characteristics. Projected climate change impacts were modeled by reconstructing the stratification based upon an ensemble of 19 Earth System Models (CIMP5) across four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios (i.e. 63 impact simulations), and identifying the change in spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Large and substantial shifts in bioclimatic conditions can be expected throughout the KSL area by the year 2050, within all bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Over 76 % of the total area may shift to a different stratum, 55 % to a different bioclimatic zone, and 36.6 % to a different ecoregion. Potential impacts include upward shift in mean elevation of bioclimatic zones (357 m) and ecoregions (371 m), decreases in area of the highest elevation zones and ecoregions, large expansion of the lower tropical and sub-tropical zones and ecoregions, and the disappearance of several strata representing unique bioclimatic conditions within the KSL, with potentially high levels of biotic perturbance by 2050, and a high likelihood of major consequences for biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, conservation efforts and sustainable development policies in the region
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This publication documents a study that uses a quantitative spatial analytic approach to environmentally stratify the KSL based on the Global Environmental Stratification approach
. The results are intended for use as a baseline for climate change research, for comparative studies, and to model the projected impacts of climate change on the landscape.
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Trees are increasingly grown on-farm to supply wood and biomass needs within developing countries
. Over the last several decades, within the irrigated rice-wheat growing lands of northern India, fast-growing poplar trees have been planted on tens of thousands of small farms. Recent debate regarding afforestation has raised the issue that water use is often increased when trees are planted. This ongoing debate focuses primarily on afforestation or reforestation of upland and rain-fed agricultural areas, and off-site impacts such as reduced streamflow. Adoption of poplar agroforestry in northern India, in contrast, is occurring in areas where land and water are already intensively used and managed for agricultural production. This study based on farmer survey data, used remote sensing and spatial hydrological modeling to investigate the importance and role of the poplar trees within the agricultural landscape, and to estimate their water use. Overall, results illustrate a potential for addressing the increasing global demand for wood products with trees grown on-farm within irrigated agroforestry systems
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