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Two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), IBIS and LPJ, were used to assess the projected impacts of climate change on forests in terms of the shifts in vegetation types and changes in NPP (net primary productivity) in the mid Brahmaputra, Koshi, and upper Indus river basins
. Changes were assessed for the mid-term (2021–2050) and longterm (2071–2100) periods with respect to the baseline (1961–1990) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using precipitation and temperature as the key climate variables. The DGVMs were driven by the ensemble mean climate projections from five CMIP5 climate models. While both DGVMs projected vegetation shifts in the forest areas of the basins, there were differences in the area projected to be affected by the shifts. This can be attributed mainly to differences in the representation of land surface processes and in the number of vegetation types (plant functional types) defined and simulated in the two models. There was some agreement in the changes in NPP projected by the two models under the high emission RCP8.5 scenario, but with differences in degree
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There is a growing consensus among migration scholars that remittances tend to be a counter-cyclical shock absorber in times of crisis
. In mountain contexts of the global South, lack of formal employment opportunities, precarious land rights, subsistence agriculture, along with the lack of access to financial instruments and social protection, severely limit the ability of people to cope with crisis and insure themselves against risks. The extent to which remittances can contribute to climate change adaptation requires further exploration. Previous research has adopted an index-based approach to examine the vulnerability of a country, community, sector, or ecosystem. However, similar methodology has not been applied to explore whether remittances have a role in reducing the vulnerability of recipient households to a particular environmental stressor. Floods are a major environmental stressor in the Upper Indus Sub-basin. However, village level flood preparedness remains low, and household level flood preparedness is comprised of short-term strategies. Remittances are crucial to meet the basic needs (e.g. food, education, healthcare) of recipient households. The findings from the vulnerability assessment indicate that remittance recipient households are marginally less vulnerable than non-recipient households. Remittance recipient households have lower dependence on the environment, better access to formal financial institutions, and are less likely to reduce food consumption during floods. In contrast, among the households engaged in farming, more non-recipient households have made changes in agricultural practices in response to floods than remittance recipient households
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The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high
. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin’s water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members
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High-altitude climates are particularly uncertain, and commonly used climate datasets are grossly inaccurate at high altitudes
. Therefore, a novel reference climate dataset covering the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins has been constructed with a particular focus on improved representation of high-altitude precipitation. This document describes the construction of a historical climate dataset for the IGB river basins, which has been constructed for widespread use in the HI-AWARE project. The dataset covers the period from 1 January 1981 to 31 December 2010 with a daily time step and covers the IGB river basins at 10x10 km spatial resolution. Additionally, the upstream parts of the basins are covered at 5x5 km spatial resolution in a separate dataset to account for the larger variability in mountainous terrain. The methods used to generate the dataset have been discussed and the contents of the dataset have been illustrated in this document
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The Regional Programme on river basins focuses on multidisciplinary resource management approaches that address climate change and variability; cryosphere dynamics; the hydrological regime and water availability; water-related risk management; mountain community water management; and vulnerability and adaptation
. The programme emphasizes improved understanding of upstream-downstream linkages and the links between natural resources and livelihoods. The current focus is on developing programmes for the Koshi and Indus river basins, with more to be developed in the future. Key outcomes will include improved estimates of future water availability and its impact, and adaptive water management strategies at basin and community levels
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The Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins support 700 million people in Asia
. The water resources are used for irrigation, drinking, industry, navigation and hydropower. This paper reviews the literature on the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of these river basins and suggests that the different basins are likely to be affected in different ways. Climate change will have a marked affect on meltwater in the Indus Basin and may result in increased flood risk in the Brahmaputra Basin. The overall impact on annual discharge is likely to be low, but more studies are required to understand intra-annual changes and the impact of extreme events
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Natural resource-dependent isolated mountain communities are highly vulnerable to climatic and environmental stresses, and migration is often the most important livelihood diversification strategy for insuring a household against shocks
. In this paper, we present some key results from a study conducted in the West Karakoram region of Pakistan to assess the influence of environmental shocks on migration and the effect of remittances on the adaptive capacity of recipient households and on gender relations. Primary data were collected at community and household level through in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and quantitative questionnaires covering 210 households in 6 villages of the West Karakoram. Our findings suggest that migration is adopted as a core response to environmental pressure, both as an ex ante form of household risk mitigation against decreased and uncertain agricultural production, and as an ex post coping mechanism in the wake of environmental shocks. Gender structures migration; only men participate in circular labor migration to urban areas, while women are left behind to take care of the agricultural work and the household. Despite women's increased role in farming activities, no significant changes were noted in the decision-making power of women as a result of male outmigration. Gender positive transformative processes are more likely to be intergenerational and driven by increased access to education for girls
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Hydrological modeling has become an indispensable component of water resources research and management in large river basins
. Hydrological models help understand the past and current state of water resources in the basin, and provide a way to explore the implications of management decisions and imposed changes (such as climate change). In large river basins in the developing world, international donors have supported hydrological modeling for water resources management and planning, from two perspectives: to inform decisions relating to national development and poverty alleviation; and to prevent trans-boundary conflicts by promoting equitable allocation and access. Very significant effort and funding has gone into these models. In pursuit of improved accuracy, there is a tendency for each new group working in a basin to develop their own model, or suite of models, resulting in a plethora of hydrological tools for each major basin. The results are published, but model setup files, actual inputs and outputs are hardly ever shared in public domain. Due to limited access to observed data for model calibration, every “new” model is likely to be bound to use the same data and hence have similar deficiencies to previous modeling attempts. This paper explores the question: at what stage do we have enough information to stop modeling and get on with planning and management? How much modeling is enough? In this paper, we review the modeling effort in four major river basins in the developing world: Nile, Mekong, Ganges and Indus. For each basin, we provide an inventory of the main studies published since the year 2000; examine the types, purpose and use of existing models; overlaps and duplicate investments; constraints and gaps in knowledge. We then provide recommendations to assist research modeling groups and funding agencies to improve coordination, reduce repetition and improve the effectiveness of their investments in model development and application
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Pakistan is vulnerable to hazards of multiple nature and their frequent recurrence in recent years has significantly hampered our goal of sustained economic growth by causing massive losses to lives and property
. Floods have been more frequent and damaging with substantial negative effect on our economy.
Although disaster management system is still in its nascent stage, yet we have made progress in mainstreaming disaster risk reduction in development processes, which will lead to greater resilience against potential disasters. Formulation of National Disaster Risk Reduction Policy and implementation of National Disaster Management Plan which includes strengthening of flood protection and early warning systems, is likely to significantly reduce flood risk.
Keeping in view the changing climatic conditions and frequent recurrence of unpredictable and extreme weather events during the monsoon season, it is critical that relevant stakeholders, particularly at the district level, are fully prepared to handle potential disaster situation. The monsoon contingency planning process has accordingly been executed through a bottom up approach whereby the district level authorities of flood prone districts, through the provincial governments, were assisted in undertaking their hazards and risk analysis, identify their needs, plan effective deployment of available resources and prepare their Contingency Plans for likely scenarios keeping in view the available long term seasonal weather forecasts. On the basis of provincial plans, NDMA has finalized the National Plan in consultation with all stakeholders, which will provide national response back up against situations which appear to be getting beyond Provincial/ Regional capacity
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