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The Regional Programme on river basins focuses on multidisciplinary resource management approaches that address climate change and variability; cryosphere dynamics; the hydrological regime and water availability; water-related risk management; mountain community water management; and vulnerability and adaptation
. The programme emphasizes improved understanding of upstream-downstream linkages and the links between natural resources and livelihoods. The current focus is on developing programmes for the Koshi and Indus river basins, with more to be developed in the future. Key outcomes will include improved estimates of future water availability and its impact, and adaptive water management strategies at basin and community levels
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The Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins support 700 million people in Asia
. The water resources are used for irrigation, drinking, industry, navigation and hydropower. This paper reviews the literature on the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of these river basins and suggests that the different basins are likely to be affected in different ways. Climate change will have a marked affect on meltwater in the Indus Basin and may result in increased flood risk in the Brahmaputra Basin. The overall impact on annual discharge is likely to be low, but more studies are required to understand intra-annual changes and the impact of extreme events
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Natural resource-dependent isolated mountain communities are highly vulnerable to climatic and environmental stresses, and migration is often the most important livelihood diversification strategy for insuring a household against shocks
. In this paper, we present some key results from a study conducted in the West Karakoram region of Pakistan to assess the influence of environmental shocks on migration and the effect of remittances on the adaptive capacity of recipient households and on gender relations. Primary data were collected at community and household level through in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and quantitative questionnaires covering 210 households in 6 villages of the West Karakoram. Our findings suggest that migration is adopted as a core response to environmental pressure, both as an ex ante form of household risk mitigation against decreased and uncertain agricultural production, and as an ex post coping mechanism in the wake of environmental shocks. Gender structures migration; only men participate in circular labor migration to urban areas, while women are left behind to take care of the agricultural work and the household. Despite women's increased role in farming activities, no significant changes were noted in the decision-making power of women as a result of male outmigration. Gender positive transformative processes are more likely to be intergenerational and driven by increased access to education for girls
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Hydrological modeling has become an indispensable component of water resources research and management in large river basins
. Hydrological models help understand the past and current state of water resources in the basin, and provide a way to explore the implications of management decisions and imposed changes (such as climate change). In large river basins in the developing world, international donors have supported hydrological modeling for water resources management and planning, from two perspectives: to inform decisions relating to national development and poverty alleviation; and to prevent trans-boundary conflicts by promoting equitable allocation and access. Very significant effort and funding has gone into these models. In pursuit of improved accuracy, there is a tendency for each new group working in a basin to develop their own model, or suite of models, resulting in a plethora of hydrological tools for each major basin. The results are published, but model setup files, actual inputs and outputs are hardly ever shared in public domain. Due to limited access to observed data for model calibration, every “new” model is likely to be bound to use the same data and hence have similar deficiencies to previous modeling attempts. This paper explores the question: at what stage do we have enough information to stop modeling and get on with planning and management? How much modeling is enough? In this paper, we review the modeling effort in four major river basins in the developing world: Nile, Mekong, Ganges and Indus. For each basin, we provide an inventory of the main studies published since the year 2000; examine the types, purpose and use of existing models; overlaps and duplicate investments; constraints and gaps in knowledge. We then provide recommendations to assist research modeling groups and funding agencies to improve coordination, reduce repetition and improve the effectiveness of their investments in model development and application
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Pakistan is vulnerable to hazards of multiple nature and their frequent recurrence in recent years has significantly hampered our goal of sustained economic growth by causing massive losses to lives and property
. Floods have been more frequent and damaging with substantial negative effect on our economy.
Although disaster management system is still in its nascent stage, yet we have made progress in mainstreaming disaster risk reduction in development processes, which will lead to greater resilience against potential disasters. Formulation of National Disaster Risk Reduction Policy and implementation of National Disaster Management Plan which includes strengthening of flood protection and early warning systems, is likely to significantly reduce flood risk.
Keeping in view the changing climatic conditions and frequent recurrence of unpredictable and extreme weather events during the monsoon season, it is critical that relevant stakeholders, particularly at the district level, are fully prepared to handle potential disaster situation. The monsoon contingency planning process has accordingly been executed through a bottom up approach whereby the district level authorities of flood prone districts, through the provincial governments, were assisted in undertaking their hazards and risk analysis, identify their needs, plan effective deployment of available resources and prepare their Contingency Plans for likely scenarios keeping in view the available long term seasonal weather forecasts. On the basis of provincial plans, NDMA has finalized the National Plan in consultation with all stakeholders, which will provide national response back up against situations which appear to be getting beyond Provincial/ Regional capacity
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The hydrological roles of glaciers and seasonal snow in the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Amu Darya, Syr Darya and Mekong basins are, for the first time, assessed comprehensively at a major river basin scale in this paper
. Contribution of glacier runoff, subdivided into renewable and nonrenewable components, and seasonal snowmelt to mean annual flow is evaluated for two time slices: 1961-1990 and 2001-2010. The recent changes of the hydrological roles of glaciers and snow, and the most likely changes of those under future climate change are analyzed
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Greater Himalayan glaciers are retreating and losing mass at rates comparable to glaciers in other regions of the world
. Assessments of future changes and their associated hydrological impacts are scarce, oversimplify glacier dynamics or include a limited number of climate models. Here, we use results from the latest ensemble of climate models in combination with a high-resolution glacio-hydrological model to assess the hydrological impact of climate change on two climatically contrasting watersheds in the Greater Himalaya, the Baltoro and Langtang watersheds that drain into the Indus and Ganges rivers, respectively. We show that the largest uncertainty in future runoff is a result of variations in projected precipitation between climate models. In both watersheds, strong, but highly variable, increases in future runoff are projected and, despite the different characteristics of the watersheds, their responses are surprisingly similar. In both cases, glaciers will recede but net glacier melt runoff is on a rising limb at least until 2050. In combination with a positive change in precipitation, water availability during this century is not likely to decline. We conclude that river basins that depend on monsoon rains and glacier melt will continue to sustain the increasing water demands expected in these areas
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The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) covers an area of more than 200,000 km2 and has an elevation range from below 1000 to over 8000 m above sea level
. Its water resources underpin Pakistan's food security and energy supply. Vertical and horizontal variations in key climate variables govern the runoff contributions of the UIB's various elevation zones and subcatchments. Remote sensing climatic data products from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument platform provide an opportunity to develop a spatial characterization of the climatology of remote and rugged regions such as the UIB. Specifically, snow-covered area (SCA) and land surface temperature (LST) have been shown to provide good analogues, respectively, for precipitation and air temperature. As such, SCA and LST quantify regional variations in mass and energy inputs to runoff generation processes. Although the 10-year (2000–2010) MODIS observational record is not adequate to evaluate long-term trends, it does provide a consistent depiction of annual cycles and a preliminary assessment of interannual variability. This study presents a summary of the period means and interannual variability found in remotely sensed SCA and LST products for the UIB. It then provides an update of locally observed recent climate trends for the 1962 to 2007 period. Nonparametric trend tests are applied both to the local observations and to remote sensing records to assess patterns in recent variability. The climatic noise (intense variability) of the past decade, however, renders conclusions on nascent trends in SCA and LST premature. Finally, runoff sensitivity to temperature change—spatially applied as summer (JJA) nighttime 0°C LST isotherm migration—is assessed for a range of potential scenarios. Results indicate that changes in mean summer (JJA) runoff could range from −30 to +35% or more, depending on whether recent locally observed changes continue or scenarios derived from current regional climate model (RCM) simulations unfold
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India's trans-boundary riparian policies affect four countries - Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh - on three river systems - the Indus, the Ganga and the Brahmaputra-Mehgna
. China's riparian policies affect nine countries to the south - Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam - on five river systems - the Indus, the Ganga, the Brahmaputra, the Salween and the Mekong. [IRN report]. URL:[http://www.internationalrivers.org/files/TransboundaryRiverBasins.pdf]
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