Rapid urbanization and economic development have resulted in a mismatch between the supply and demand of ecosystem services. The theoretical value of ecosystem services (ESTV) is not suitable for determining ecosystem service compensation, posing challenges for integrated regional ecological development. A scarcity value model was used to analyze the influence of changes in supply and demand on the scarcity value of ecosystem services (ESSV) in the context of land-use change. The spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and trends of the ESSV from 2010 to 2020 were assessed in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration in China, and the driving factors were analyzed to provide theoretical guidance for horizontal ecological compensation across regions. The results show the following: (1) In the scenario that did not consider the impact of supply and demand changes on the scarcity value, the total ESTV decreased by 8.67% from 2010 to 2020, and high-value areas shifted to the west and south, whereas low-value areas shifted to the central and northern region and the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Ringbelt. The ESTV was low in Shanghai and Jiangsu and high in Zhejiang. (2) In the scenario that considered changes in the supply and demand of ecosystem services, the ESSV increased from RMB 213 million in 2010 to RMB 1.323 billion in 2020; an increase of 521.13%. The scarcity value showed high variability within the provinces, with a larger difference between Zhejiang and Jiangsu and a smaller difference between Anhui and Shanghai. The ESSV was higher in counties with increased urbanization and high population density and lower in counties with slower economic growth and fewer people. (3) Regional ecological integration planning and management should be strengthened, and the ESSV might be considered as the reference standard for ecological compensation. The ESSV showed that spatio-temporal heterogeneity might guide the conversion from ecological resources to ecological capital and promote the regulatory role of market mechanisms to achieve horizontal payments for ecosystem services across regions. © 2022 by the authors.