000034026 001__ 34026
000034026 041__ $$aEnglish
000034026 100__ $$aPretis, F.
000034026 245__ $$aUncertain Impacts on Economic Growth When Stabilizing Global Temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C Warming
000034026 260__ $$c2018
000034026 300__ $$a20160460-20160460
000034026 511__ $$aIndus, IndusARTICLES
000034026 520__ $$aEmpirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP)per capitaexhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDPper capitaapproximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions inper capitaGDP growth and national income levels is significant at thep < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.
000034026 700__ $$aAllen, M. R.
000034026 700__ $$aHaustein, K.
000034026 700__ $$aSchwarz, M.
000034026 700__ $$aTang, K.
000034026 773__ $$a10.1098/rsta.2016.0460
000034026 773__ $$pPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
000034026 773__ $$v376 (2119)
000034026 8564_ $$uhttp://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/lookup/doi/10.1098/rsta.2016.0460$$yExternal link
000034026 980__ $$aARTICLE