Under the dual influence of climate change and land-use change, different protection policies in Qinling Mountains lead to different hydrological responses. On the basis of land-use and climatic changes in the Qinling Mountains of Shaanxi province, we constructed a response model among land use, climate, and runoff in the Qinling Mountains through the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model was used to predict and simulate land-use types of the Qinling Mountains in 2025 and 2030. On the basis of the current ecological protection policy in China, two scenarios of land use were set up to find the best method for forestland protection. The results show the following. The SWAT model is applicable to the Weihe River and Hanjiang River basins of the Qinling Mountains, the simulation results were verified, and the Nash coefficient was above 0.6. Under future climate change and land-use patterns, runoff in the Qinling Mountains watershed shows an upward trend, and the runoff in the Hanjiang River basin increased by more than that in the Weihe River basin, with change rates of 47.471 and 33.356 m3/10a, respectively. According to the future trend of the two different scenarios, the increase degree of runoff in the natural scenario of Weihe River basin was 16.567 m3/10a higher than that in the woodland scenario, and the increase degree of runoff in the Hanjiang River basin was 17.692 m3/10a higher than that in the woodland scenario. Therefore, blindly increasing the forestland area in Qinling Mountains cannot achieve a better hydrological effect. © 2022 by the authors.
