000032313 001__ 32313
000032313 037__ $$aARTICLE--2016-044
000032313 041__ $$aEnglish
000032313 100__ $$aLutz, A. F.
000032313 100__ $$aImmerzeel, W. W.
000032313 100__ $$aKraaijenbrink, P. D. A.
000032313 100__ $$aShrestha, A. B.
000032313 100__ $$aBierkens, M. F. P.
000032313 245__ $$aClimate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes
000032313 260__ $$c2016
000032313 300__ $$a33
000032313 511__ $$aIndus, IndusARTICLES
000032313 520__ $$aThe Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin’s water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.
000032313 653__ $$aHydrology
000032313 653__ $$aClimate change
000032313 653__ $$aIndus
000032313 653__ $$aRiver basins
000032313 653__ $$aWater supply
000032313 650__ $$aClimate change
000032313 650__ $$aWater availability and demand
000032313 650__ $$aWater management
000032313 773__ $$pPLoS ONE 
000032313 773__ $$v11
000032313 773__ $$n11
000032313 8564_ $$uhttp://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0165630$$y
000032313 8560_ $$fshiva.khatri@icimod.org
000032313 8564_ $$uhttp://lib.icimod.org/record/32313/files/Upper Indus 2016.pdf
000032313 8564_ $$uhttp://lib.icimod.org/record/32313/files/Upper Indus 2016.ps
000032313 8564_ $$uhttp://lib.icimod.org/record/32313/files/Upper Indus 2016.png?subformat=icon$$xicon
000032313 8564_ $$uhttp://lib.icimod.org/record/32313/files/Upper Indus 2016.png?subformat=icon-180$$xicon-180
000032313 8564_ $$uhttp://lib.icimod.org/record/32313/files/Upper Indus 2016.png?subformat=icon-210$$xicon-210
000032313 8564_ $$uhttp://lib.icimod.org/record/32313/files/Upper Indus 2016.png?subformat=icon-600$$xicon-600
000032313 980__ $$aARTICLE