000032041 001__ 32041
000032041 041__ $$aEnglish
000032041 100__ $$aLiu, B.
000032041 245__ $$aA Quantitative Model for Estimating Risk from Multiple Interacting Natural Hazards: An Application to Northeast Zhejiang, China
000032041 260__ $$c2016
000032041 300__ $$a1-22
000032041 520__ $$aMulti-hazard risk assessment is a major concern in risk analysis, but most approaches do not consider all hazard interactions when calculating possible losses. We address this problem by developing an improved quantitative model—Model for multi-hazard Risk assessment with a consideration of Hazard Interaction (MmhRisk-HI). This model calculates the possible loss caused by multiple hazards, with an explicit consideration of interaction between those hazards. There are two main components to the model. In the first, based on the hazard-forming environment, relationships among hazards are classified into four types for calculation of the exceedance probability of multiple hazards occurrence. In the second, a Bayesian network is used to calculate possible loss caused by multiple hazards with different exceedance probabilities. A multi-hazard risk map can then be drawn addressing the probability of multi-hazard occurrence and corresponding loss. This model was applied in northeast Zhejiang, China and validated by comparison against an observed multi-hazard sequence. The validation results show that the model can more effectively represent the real world, and that the modelled outputs, possible loss caused by multiple hazards, are reliable. The outputs can additionally help to identify areas at greatest risk, and allows a determination of the factors that contribute to that risk, and hence the model can provide useful further information for planners and decision-makers concerned with risk mitigation.
000032041 700__ $$aSiu, Y. L.
000032041 700__ $$aMitchell, G.
000032041 773__ $$pStochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
000032041 773__ $$a10.1007/s00477-016-1250-6
000032041 8564_ $$uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1250-6$$yExternal link (open access)
000032041 980__ $$aARTICLE