000031993 001__ 31993
000031993 041__ $$aEnglish
000031993 100__ $$aAsokan, S. M.
000031993 245__ $$aClimate Model Performance and Change Projection for Freshwater Fluxes: Comparison for Irrigated Areas in Central and South Asia
000031993 260__ $$c2016
000031993 300__ $$a48-65
000031993 520__ $$aAbstractStudy region The large semi-arid Aral Region in Central Asia and the smaller tropical Mahanadi River Basin (MRB) in India. Study focus Few studies have so far evaluated the performance of the latest generation of global climate models on hydrological basin scales. We here investigate the performance and projections of the global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) for freshwater fluxes and their changes in two regional hydrological basins, which are both irrigated but of different scale and with different climate. New hydrological insights for the region For precipitation in both regions, model accuracy relative to observations has remained the same or decreased in successive climate model generations until and including CMIP5. No single climate model out-performs other models across all key freshwater variables in any of the investigated basins. Scale effects are not evident from global model application directly to freshwater assessment for the two basins of widely different size. Overall, model results are less accurate and more uncertain for freshwater fluxes than for temperature, and particularly so for model-implied water storage changes. Also, the monsoon-driven runoff seasonality in MRB is not accurately reproduced. Model projections agree on evapotranspiration increase in both regions until the climatic period 2070–2099. This increase is fed by precipitation increase in MRB and by runoff water (thereby decreasing runoff) in the Aral Region.
000031993 653__ $$aCmip5 Global Climate Models
000031993 653__ $$aHydro-Climate
000031993 653__ $$aFreshwater Change
000031993 653__ $$aCentral Asia
000031993 653__ $$aSouth Asia
000031993 653__ $$aMonsoon Driven Seasonality
000031993 700__ $$aRogberg, P.
000031993 700__ $$aBring, A.
000031993 700__ $$aJarsjö, J.
000031993 700__ $$aDestouni, G.
000031993 773__ $$pJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
000031993 773__ $$v5 
000031993 773__ $$ahttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.11.017
000031993 8564_ $$uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581815001329$$yExternal link (open access)
000031993 980__ $$aARTICLE