000030020 001__ 30020
000030020 041__ $$aEnglish
000030020 100__ $$aDube, A.
000030020 245__ $$aForecasting the Heavy Rainfall During Himalayan Flooding—June 2013
000030020 260__ $$c2014
000030020 269__ $$c8//
000030020 300__ $$a22-34
000030020 500__ $$aOpen access article
000030020 520__ $$aOn 17th June 2013 the state of Uttarakhand in India (Latitude 28.72°N to 31.45°N and Longitude 77.57°E–81.03°E) received more than 340 mm of rainfall, which is 375% more than the daily normal (65.9 mm) rainfall during monsoon. This caused heavy floods in Uttarakhand as well as unprecedented damage to life and property. In this study we aim at assessing the performance of two deterministic forecast models, Global Forecast System (GFS/T574) and Unified Model (NCUM), run at NCMRWF, in predicting the heavy rainfall observed over Uttarakhand region of India during 17–18th June, 2013. Verification of the synoptic features in forecasts of the two models suggests that NCUM accurately captures the circulation features as compared to T574. Further verification of this event is carried out based on the contiguous rain area (CRA) technique. CRA verification is used in computing the total mean square error (MSE) which is based on displacement, volume and pattern errors. This verification technique also, confirms the better skill of NCUM over T574 in terms of forecast peak rainfall amounts, volume and average rain rate, lower MSE and root mean square error (RMSE) as well as having higher hit rates and lower misses and false alarm rates for different rainfall thresholds from Day 1 to Day 5 forecasts.
000030020 653__ $$aSouthwest Monsoon
000030020 653__ $$aUttarakhand
000030020 653__ $$aGlobal Forecast System
000030020 653__ $$aUnified Model
000030020 653__ $$aContiguous Rainfall Area
000030020 653__ $$aEvent Verification
000030020 700__ $$aAshrit, R.
000030020 700__ $$aAshish, A.
000030020 700__ $$aSharma, K.
000030020 700__ $$aIyengar, G. R.
000030020 700__ $$aRajagopal, E. N.
000030020 700__ $$aBasu, S.
000030020 773__ $$pWeather and Climate Extremes
000030020 773__ $$v4 (0)
000030020 773__ $$ahttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.03.004
000030020 8564_ $$uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094714000206$$yExternal link (Open access)
000030020 980__ $$aARTICLE