000029639 001__ 29639
000029639 041__ $$aEnglish
000029639 100__ $$aRajbhandari, R.
000029639 245__ $$aProjected Changes in Climate over the Indus River Basin Using a High Resolution Regional Climate Model (Precis)
000029639 260__ $$c2014
000029639 300__ $$a1-19
000029639 507__ $$aArun Bhakat Shrestha, Sagar Bajracharya, ICIMOD staff, peerreviewed, HICAP, hicapproject 
000029639 511__ $$aadaptarticle
000029639 511__ $$aIndus, IndusARTICLES
000029639 520__ $$aA regional climate modelling system, the Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, has been used to study future climate change scenarios over Indus basin for the impact assessment. In this paper we have examined the three Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions simulations selected from 17-member perturbed physics ensemble generated using Hadley Centre Coupled Module. The climate projections based on IPCC SRES A1B scenario are analysed over three time slices, near future (2011–2040), middle of the twenty first century (2041–2070), and distant future (2071–2098). The baseline simulation (1961–1990) was evaluated with observed data for seasonal and spatial patterns and biases. The model was able to resolve features on finer spatial scales and depict seasonal variations reasonably well, although there were quantitative biases. The model simulations suggest a non-uniform change in precipitation overall, with an increase in precipitation over the upper Indus basin and decrease over the lower Indus basin, and little change in the border area between the upper and lower Indus basins. A decrease in winter precipitation is projected, particularly over the southern part of the basin. Projections indicate greater warming in the upper than the lower Indus, and greater warming in winter than in the other seasons. The simulations suggest an overall increase in the number of rainy days over the basin, but a decrease in the number of rainy days accompanied by an increase in rainfall intensity in the border area between the upper and lower basins, where the rainfall amount is highest.
000029639 653__ $$aClimate Change
000029639 653__ $$aFuture Climate Scenario
000029639 653__ $$aClimate Projection
000029639 653__ $$aHimalaya Region
000029639 653__ $$aIndus Basin
000029639 700__ $$aShrestha, A. B.
000029639 700__ $$aKulkarni, A.
000029639 700__ $$aPatwardhan, S. K.
000029639 700__ $$aBajracharya, S. R.
000029639 773__ $$pClimate Dynamics
000029639 773__ $$a10.1007/s00382-014-2183-8
000029639 8564_ $$uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2183-8$$yExternal link
000029639 980__ $$aARTICLE