000029569 001__ 29569
000029569 041__ $$aEnglish
000029569 100__ $$aSmith, A.
000029569 245__ $$aComparing Ensemble Projections of Flooding against Flood Estimation by Continuous Simulation
000029569 269__ $$cApril 2014
000029569 260__ $$c2014
000029569 300__ $$a205-219
000029569 511__ $$aadaptarticle
000029569 520__ $$aClimate impact studies focused on the projection of changing flood risk are increasingly utilized to inform future flood risk policy. These studies typically use the output from global (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs). However the direct application of GCM/RCM output is controversial as often significant biases exist in predicted rainfall; instead a number of alternative ‘correction’ approaches have emerged. In this study an ensemble of RCMs from the ENSEMBLES and UKCP09 projects are applied, via a number of application techniques, to explore the possible impacts of climate change on flooding in the Avon catchment, in the UK. The analysis is conducted under a continuous simulation methodology, using a stochastic rainfall generator to drive the HBV-light rainfall run-off model under a parameter uncertainty framework. This permitted a comparison between the projections produced by differing application approaches, whilst also considering the uncertainty associated with flood risk projections under observed conditions.
000029569 653__ $$aClimate Change
000029569 653__ $$aFlooding
000029569 653__ $$aRcm
000029569 653__ $$aUkcp09
000029569 653__ $$aEnsembles
000029569 653__ $$aStochastic Model
000029569 700__ $$aFreer, J.
000029569 700__ $$aBates, P.
000029569 700__ $$aSampson, C.
000029569 773__ $$pJournal of Hydrology
000029569 773__ $$v511 (0)
000029569 773__ $$ahttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.01.045
000029569 8564_ $$uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169414000675$$ySource link (Open acces)
000029569 980__ $$aARTICLE