An accurate estimate of the site index is essential for informing decision-making in forestry. In this study, we developed site index (SI) models using stem analysis data to estimate the site index and the dominant height growth for Larix gmelinii var. principis-rupprechtii in northern China. The data included 5122 height–age pairs from 75 dominant trees in 29 temporary sample plots (TSPs). Nine commonly used growth functions were parameterized using the modeling method, which accounts for heterogeneous variance and autocorrelation in the time-series data and introduces sample plot-level random effects in the model. The results show that the Duplat and Tran-Ha I model with random effects described the largest proportion of the dominant height variation. This model accurately evaluated the site quality and predicted the dominant tree height growth in natural Larix forests in the Guandi Mountain region. As an important supplement in improving methods for site quality evaluation, the model may serve as a fundamental tool in the scientific management of larch forests. The research results can inform an accurate evaluation of the site quality and predict the growth of the dominant height in a larch forest in the Guandi Mountain forest area as well as provide a theoretical basis for forest site quality evaluation at similar sites. © 2022 by the authors.
