This report examines Afghanistan’s regional challenges. It finds that domestic instability in Pakistan, strains in Pakistan–Afghanistan relations and insecurities associated with the US–Iran stand-off on Iran’s nuclear programme continue to pose the most significant regional risks to the stability of Afghanistan. There are, however, a number of additional challenges: the failure of the USA and its allies to enable a substantial dialogue on Afghanistan with Russia and China, in addition to India and Pakistan’s continued rivalry, create a suboptimal regional environment for Afghanistan’s stabilization process.
The report also finds that there are serious regional challenges related to drugs trafficking and water sharing. It discusses the situation in two of Afghanistan’s (lesser known) neighbours in detail. It finds that particularly Uzbekistan is unstable: regime collapse in this country is one possible scenario – and this would entail grave consequences for Afghanistan, especially the northern regions. Turkmenistan by contrast seems stable in the short- to medium-term.
The report ends by providing the following set of policy recommendations for Norwegian policymakers: - Norway could usefully advocate for a more pro-active NATO engagement with Russia, China and the SCO;- Norway and its allies must recognise the serious and understandable unease on the part of Russia and China over the NATO and OEF bases in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan;- greater attention should be paid to the situation in Uzbekistan. Developments in the country need to be monitored closely; Norway should advocate a rethinking by the international community of how it relates to Uzbekistan;- Pakistan’s stability and democratic consolidation is paramount for Afghanistan’s recovery: thus, Norway should actively support any efforts by the international community that address the structural causes of Pakistan’s current problems;- Norway could play a leading and constructive role in relation to the region’s water challenges. With top expertise in both conflict mitigation and hydropower, Norwegian technical assistance could contribute to a significant reduction in the risks associated with competition for scarce water resources among Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries;- drugs continue to be a central regional challenge. Norway has supported drug control efforts in Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries.
