Analyses of landscape patterns, analyses of land-use/land-cover evolution characteristics, and a driving force analysis during the expansion of urban agglomerations can assist urban agglomerations in solving ecological and environmental problems; moreover, these tools can provide a reference for urban land-use structure optimization and urban landscape planning. In this study, the rapid urbanization and urban agglomeration of small- and medium-sized cities were evaluated; specifically, the urban agglomeration of the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains (UANSTM) was assessed. Using multi-period (1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2018) land-use data and statistical yearbook data, we calculated the landscape index and comprehensive land-use degree index using the Moran index and geographic probe methods. We studied the expansion patterns and spatial distribution patterns of urban land and quantitatively explored the influence mechanisms of natural and socioeconomic factors on the degree of land use to clarify the characteristics and driving forces of land-use evolution. The results show the following: the area of urban land continued to increase between 1995 and 2018; the dominance of the landscape indexes within each time period changed with urban development; and intra-urban landscape heterogeneity is gradually increasing. In terms of the spatial and temporal distribution of the degree of land use, the expansion of urban agglomeration is centered on the city of Urumqi, spreading towards the cities of Changji and Shihezi; the rest of the counties and cities are fast urban-expansion zones. Under the influence of multiple source factors, the expansion of the UANSTM depends on the distribution of oases, which is mainly influenced by the distribution of vegetation and the density of the river network and can only rely on the ecological carrying capacity of oases for production and life. The results of the study can provide a basis for decision-making processes surrounding the future layout of the UANSTM ecological environment. © 2022 by the authors.
