Breaking the climate deadlock: A global deal for our low-carbon future

There is now virtually overwhelming evidence about climate change and its consequences; there remain uncertainties, but the risks of negative and irreversible consequences are clearly high. However, the challenge can be met by improving energy efficiency, use of low-carbon energy sources, biofuels, new technologies and the use of information technologies to monitor energy use. All offer the potential for huge reductions in emissions. The challenge can be met without damaging the economy. Although various estimates indicate that abatement will have an impact on the economy, both the IPCC and the Stern Review have found that it is likely to be relatively low - significantly less, for example, than the recent oil price rise. Addressing climate change leads to energy security, as around 50 percent of potential abatement actions - energy efficiency, renewables, biofuels, nuclear - result in increased energy security. Adaptation will be a necessity, not a choice as climate change is already occurring and will continue to occur even with strong action. Over a billion people live in coastal regions prone to flooding, and will likely be affected even if radical action is taken. Droughts, shifting agricultural patterns, greater storm intensity, and spread of disease areas are all effects that will need to be addressed - particularly for the poorest and most vulnerable nations. Waiting is risky and expensive. A global deal on climate change is essential. Without it, individual countries can act, but the cumulative impact will be much less than concerted action within a framework that accelerates the process of change in both developed and developing nations. The Bali Action Plan agreed in December 2007 under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provides the overall direction for the post-Kyoto treaty negotiations that will occur in Copenhagen in December 2009. The purpose of this report is to describe the building blocks needed in a global deal and the research necessary to broaden and deepen understanding of them and how they interrelate. A future report for the 2009 G8 will then try to show how these elements could be put together in a coherent deal. Ten core building blocks for a global deal have been identified:

1. The global target
2. An interim target
3. Developed world commitments and carbon markets
4. Developing world contributions
5. Sectoral action
6. Financing
7. Technology
8. Forests
9. Adaptation
10. Institutions and mechanisms of action

If the G8 nations are committed to take action themselves, transform their economies, lead in new technologies, and support the nations of the developing world, then the chances of a successful and perhaps even historic outcome in Copenhagen will be greatly increased.