The world has warmed by 0.74°C over the last century according to the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. However, this warming has not been globally uniform. The high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere have been disproportionately affected and reconstructions of past temperatures suggest that the late 20th century warming is unprecedented. In addition, all climate models predict a warming trend due to rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Substantial impacts are predicted for snowmelt-dominated regional water resources such as those in the Himalaya.
Very little research has been carried out in the HKH region to date. Yet the findings from our work have implications for the water supplies of around 50 million people in Pakistan who are dependent on melt water from seasonal snowfall. Our research suggests we may be able to predict in advance the volume of summer runoff, which is very useful in planning ahead for water resources and also the output from the dams.
It is hoped that our research will help us to understand the impacts of global warming and provide practical solutions for seasonal forecasting of water resource availability for the HKH region of Pakistan. Information on year by year climatic variability is perhaps more important for the current management of the water resource system as it helps forecast inflow into reservoirs and allows for better planning of water use for irrigation. However, information on the impacts of climatic change is important for the longer term management of water resources and to help us understand what is happening in the mountains under global warming.
