In the past several years the changing world energy situation has generated intensive discussion about biofuels, much of it promising a source of environment-friendly energy that would also be a boon to the world’s farmers. At the same time skeptics argue that biofuel production will threaten food supplies for the poor and fail to achieve the environmental benefts claimed. Based on the analyses below, the authors conclude that in order to make a difference in the lives of poor people as both energy producers and consumers, and to make strong environmental and economic contributions, biofuel technology needs further advancement, and investments and policies facilitating agricultural innovation and trade will have to be considered.
One reason that biofuels have achieved such a high place on the global agenda is that demand for energy is rising and is certain to continue to rise in the coming decades. Energy use is predicted to jump in many parts of the developing world, where use of marketed energy has been very low until now. Indeed, some 2 billion people still have little or no access to modern energy.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 2006 International Energy Outlook, global consumption of marketed energy is projected to rise by 71 percent between 2003 and 2030, from 421 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) to 722 quadrillion Btu. Three-quarters of the increase will come from developing countries. In fact, the report projects that energy demand in the countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) will surpass that of the OECD countries in 2015. Much of the increase in demand in developing countries will come from Asia, including China and India, whose fast economic growth and enormous populations put them on track to become large energy consumers.
