The future of water and food is highly uncertain. Relatively uncontrollable factors like weather are partially the cause but the fundamental policy choices that drive water and food supply and demand long-term are key to determining actual outcomes. Such policies address income and population growth, investment in water supply, urban water systems, dams, irrigation, and other water infrastructure; relative allocations of water to irrigation, domestic, industrial and environmental uses; reform of river basin, irrigation, and municipal and industrial water management; water prices; and technological change in agriculture.
Three possible futures for global water and food markets are presented in this chapter:
- The business-as-usual scenario (BAU) projects the likely water and food outcomes for a future trajectory based on the recent past, whereby current trends for water investments, water prices and management are broadly maintained.
- The water crisis scenario (CRI) projects deterioration of current trends and policies in the water sector.
- The sustainable water use scenario (SUS) projects improvements in a wide range of water sector policies and trends.
