Outdoor recreation is extremely dependent on the natural resource base and the weather. The resource base determines what kind of activities take place - for example, without water people cannot go swimming or sailing- while the weather determines when the activity will take place. Recreational choices are not only affected by the weather but also by socio-economic factors such as cultural norms, levels of disposable income, school/other holidays, the attractions present and the attractions offered elsewhere.
It is generally expected that temperatures will rise in the Prairie Provinces while there is less agreement on whether there will be more or less rain and snow. Higher temperatures, though, are expected to lead to lower water levels in the lakes and greater plant growth making swimming, fishing, sailing and water skiing less pleasurable. The season for these and other summer activities will be extended by the higher temperatures, though. The grassland ecozone is also expected to shift north. Wildlife can be expected to move with the ecozone. It is uncertain, however, how quickly this will happen. Rapid climate change could mean that many plant and animal species are unable to adapt and may become extinct in the process. Hunters and wildlife enthusiasts will more than likely follow the wildlife north or learn to hunt and view other forms of wildlife that move into the areas that they themselves usually frequent.
A longer summer does pose a threat to winter activities such as cross-country and downhill skiing, snow shoeing, skating, ice fishing, etc. Less snow cover and a shorter winter season could threaten the livelihoods of ski resort operators who have the potential to go out of business. The indirect effects of this include the loss of tourism revenues to local restaurants, hotels and other forms of amusement as well as the loss of jobs for people within the community. Since the loss of subsidies such as the crow rate, many rural communities have been considering recreation and tourism as a means of diversifying and strengthening their economies. Without knowledge of the interaction between this sector and climate change, communities could be making an economic choice that can potentially be undermined by the weather and climate change. For this reason the author has made the following recommendations:
- Climate change scenarios need to become more locale specific,
- A deeper understanding of the economic costs of creating favourable recreation conditions is needed,
- A comparative study needs to be conducted of competing attractions in places bordering on the region and the costs of engaging in these activities,
- New management strategies need to be developed to take into account the changing resource base in its effect on vegetation, wildlife and recreational choices, and
- Resource conflicts due to competition for scarce resources such as water need to be anticipated and legislation or a process established for resolving these conflicts.
